Warner Watch - Presidential Politics 2008

Birth Tax

2006-07-26T08:02:00.000-07:00

The following is from an Eric Davis for an idea he had for a Warner commercial.

The Birth Tax is the idea that every child born in America today opens her eyes owing Uncle Sam (at this point approximately) $28,000 because of George W. Bush and the Republican Congress. That’s the per capita increment of the Bush era deficit.

I think Warner should push this big time, make it one of his signature issues.

Warner of course worked a Republican-controlled legislature into trimming spending and then raising revenue. Warner eliminated the deficit in Virginia = Warner Eliminated the Birth Tax in Virginia.

Think of a commercial with Warner in a hospital, walking past the window into the nursery:

"When I took over as Governor of Virginia, newborns like these each stood to owe the Commonwealth about 850 dollars over their lifetime, debt that the politicians had piled up. Because of the Republicans in the White House and the Congress, since they took over in 2001, a child born in America today opens her eyes owing Uncle Sam 28 thousand more, counting interest, over her lifetime. That’s a 28 thousand dollar Federal Birth Tax from the Bush Republicans. In Virginia, after I took over we led the legislature on the path of fiscal responsibility. We turned it around and today Virginia has a budget surplus. We can do that for America, too. All of our kids deserve better, a fair shot, the promise of a better future in America. I’m Mark Warner and I approved this message."

Warner's Recent Chicago visit

2006-07-26T07:53:00.000-07:00

Hoping to get a more detailed post up soon about Warner's recent visit to Chicago. I will say that his stump speech is developing nicely. He has really started to hone a message on Iraq with some detail. My understanding is that he has been working with Richard Clark lately.

Warner - I am not running for VP

2006-06-07T07:19:00.000-07:00

The NY Times reports Gov. Mark Warner openly questioned Hillary's ability to compete across the entire country. I wouldn't call this the first salvo in the Democratic primary, but as Craig Crawford recently pointed out Warner is only going to be viewed as a potential running mate for Hillary unless he starts to challenge her. (Hattip to PoliticalWire)

But unless one of the newcomers, such as former Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia or Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, shows some inclination to openly challenge her pre-eminence, it is safe to assume that they are running mates in waiting.

The NY Times article shows Warner in a very confident light.

After saying he had "tremendous respect" for Mrs. Clinton and calling her a "formidable candidate" for national office, Mr. Warner said that Mrs. Clinton was not the presumptive Democratic nominee.

"I think Senator Clinton can be competitive across the country, but I think one of the things we as a party are going to have to do is look at the ideas on how we get the country back on the right track," Mr. Warner said, in an interview on NY1 News last night.

"We need to not simply look at the personality, but look at the ideas," he said. "But I find all across the country there is a real sense that what we as Democrats have to do is not simply be competitive in 16 or 17 states, but actually have candidates that can win all across the country."

I am so glad to hear Gov. Warner making a statement that he isn't in the race to be runner up. Notice how he is appealing to the Netroots by echoing Dean’s comments of being competitive in all parts of the country.

Warner is exactly right to get out there early questioning Hillary viability as a candidate. Best yet, he is the first to say what most Democrats know.

Many Democrats seem to forget that even in our beloved Bubba's re-election in 1996 that he didn't get 50% (49.2) of the vote. But he did at least win 4 southern states. Democrats can't win the Presidential election with peeling off a couple of southern states. We simply have to make the Republicans defend their base with resources and money.

So what southern state does Hillary bring into the Democratic fold?

And I love Warner's feistiness in later comments. I’m very glad to see he really showing this type of passion.

Later, he added, "Simply having anger at Bush or his administration isn't going to get us there."

Many Democrats, particularly in New York, view Mrs. Clinton as the leading contender for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2008. Some have painted Mr. Warner and other potential nominees as the alternative to Mrs. Clinton, and in the interview Mr. Warner bristled at such a suggestion. "You folks in the press are trying to find a quick sound bite to describe me," he said. "I'm not an alternative to anybody."

Warner Courts Bloggers

2006-06-06T12:44:00.000-07:00

Gov. Mark Warner is slated to host a lunch Saturday June 10th at the Yearly Kos convention in Las Vegas. This gathering will be a whos-who of on-line progressive activists. One would think the liberal blogosphere would have little in common with the red state governor. Refusing to count anyone out is actually Warner's style, or so to speak his MO. However showing his sincerity and open/thoughtful side has won over bigger detractors before.

You would have thought the self made millionaire Democratic nominee would have had very little in common with rural Virginia voters, and maybe you would be right. But he courted those voters non-stop, and he just keep showing up talking to them about their issues. On election night, he did something no other southern Democratic gubenatorial candidate has done in the last twenty years. He won 51% of the rural Virginia vote. I certainly don't count the blogosphere out.

Gov. Warner's Mapchangers

2006-06-06T12:31:00.000-07:00

It shows Warner is really taking the Internet seriously. Jerome Armstrong's Internet team at Forward Together PAC has come up with a strong program to keep Warner's name out there. The idea is simple: the Netroots can go on-line and nominate a candidate for either a congressional race or state wide race. Candidates in the top-ten will get a contribution from Warner's FT PAC. Then one finalist will get a fundraiser with Governor Warner and probably well financed by Warner's donors. Heck, who doesn't love to give away other people's money.

The benefits for Warner are obvious, he shows that he is out there fighting for Democratic candidates in red districts, and he builds a sizable chuck of e-mail addresses for his Presidential run.

I have forwarded this onto hundreds of people supporting either John Pavich and Dan Seals here in Illinois. It would be great to see either one of them get nominated, and get the national attention. After all, any political reporter worth their salt, is keeping close tabs on Warner at this point.

Go vote for your favorite and forward it on.

Warner in New Hampshire

2006-06-05T14:55:00.000-07:00

Salon has an article chronicling the Democratic Convention in New Hampshire. The focus was on Warner and Feingold, and their two "divergent views of the Democratic Party." Feingold as Warner Watch readers may remember was picked as the darling of the left by this blog last December and in Al Gore's absence is quickly assuming the mantle.

Excerpt from the Salon article written by Walter Shapiro:

In June 2002, I made my first trip to New Hampshire for the 2004 presidential cycle. Observing Feingold and Warner this weekend for the first time in a primary state, I was intrigued to discover that both candidates are more adept at this stage than their counterparts were four years ago.

As the Senate's longtime naysayer, Feingold offers an authenticity in his left-wing political persona that Howard Dean -- the moderate governor of Vermont who went on to oppose the Iraq war -- could never match. Warner boasts the magnetic appeal of a John Edwards and the easy charm of a winner. (Asked about his resemblance to Bobby Kennedy, Warner joked, "It's my horse teeth.") But, unlike Edwards in 2002, Warner brings with him a hefty record of accomplishment as a governor.

In fact, maybe the best headline for the weekend should be, "New Hampshire Democrats Get Along Fine Without Hillary. Read more: "

Warner is really charting a third way. There is a real yearning by Americans to escape the ideologues on either side. Why do you think the third party website Unity08 has gotten so much coverage? Simply Americans are sick of the powers to be fiddling while "Rome burns."

Warner's favorite quote speaks to this sense of uniting America, "The real issues we face are no longer right vs. left or conservative vs. liberal. They're about past vs. future. Our challenge, as Democrats, is to reclaim our role as the party of the future." This is the essence of Warner the media is still missing. They have tried to fit him into the DLC centrist in order to "not rock the boat" mode. What they miss is

Eric Davis said in a recent e-mail something I thought answered the "Why Warner" question beautifully.

I guess because I've already jumped into the ocean about Howard Dean I'm less willing to do it with Russ. And the arguments for why Feingold won’t win – and we HAVE to win – are more compelling. I am not, however, pushing the same "electability" argument that Kerry etc. al. used against Dean. Warner is whom we SHOULD elect, not just whom we CAN elect.

The one thing I'm almost as tired of as the daily betrayals of everything I know is right and moral and just by Bush and the wacko right is that we've lost all sense of our civil society. America is broken. It's cracked in half. While Feingold will get the far left exercised again – that's it. We need a candidate who can bring the country together again, to remind us that we're all Americans again. Obama makes this argument and he's right.

The #1 reason that Howard lost was that he forgot that at the end of the day Americans take their Presidential choice very personally. They need to like the person at least at some level. Russ is just too angry, to willing to...be like Dean. Warner isn’t right because he’s somehow less offensive to the center-right; he's the right choice because he understands that once we win, we have to be able to govern. And he’s right because he’s someone you can feel good about voting for.

First Warner for President Meeting - Chicago

2006-05-22T11:32:00.000-07:00

This will be the very first Meetup for Draft Mark Warner for President - Loop Group!

Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner has rapidly advanced up the ranks of potential Democratic nominees for President in 2008. Come join us at lunchtime and find out why!

This Meetup is for all citizens - Democrats, Independents and Republicans - to learn about Gov. Warner and to help spread the word about why he's our best choice to take back the White House in 2008!

RSVP at Meetup.

Haven't Posted in Some Time

2006-05-22T11:29:00.000-07:00

I haven't posted to Warner Watch for awhile not due to any lack of enthusiasm. My job in corporate America had me on international travel for almost three months. Then on my return, I severely damaged my knee and am going through surgeries to repair it. (Note to self: stop acting like you are in your 20s)

Warner v. Edwards

2006-02-28T19:05:00.000-08:00

Dan Conley who worked for Edwards in Iowa during the last campaign blogs the following strategic problem for Warner.

To win the nomination, Warner cannot just focus on Hillary Clinton, he must first knock John Edwards out. Possible? Sure ... the Pittsburgh Steelers won on the road three times this year to make the Super Bowl. But does that make Warner smart money? Where will Warner knock Edwards out of the race, in Iowa, where he was arguably the strongest candidate down the stretch in 2004? In New Hampshire, where Warner's tax history will come under significant scrutiny? Or how about Edwards' birth state, South Carolina? Warner's lack of a southern accent may prove a liability against Edwards who knows how to turn on the drawl for effect better than any politician since Bill Clinton.

Given all this, how can anyone conclude at this moment that the odds of Warner attaining a double knockout of Edwards and Clinton is more likely than an underachieving Warner campaign feeding an Edwards knock out of Clinton? Read entire blog.

I would agree with his assessment of Edwards as a primary challenger as I don't see Bayh or Vilsack being strong challengers. Warner will have to knock out Edwards to bring the race down to a two-person race with Hillary. It either has to be Iowa or New Hampshire although unlike Conley, I don't think the tax increase will hurt in NH and Edwards 2004 performance is not predictive of his 2008 performance.

Warner Poaching Clinton Advisors

2006-02-09T18:55:00.000-08:00

http://www.nysun.com/pf.php?id=27278

While other contenders are tied down in the Senate or in various statehouses, Mr. Warner plans to spend the next couple of years barnstorming across the country, honing his political skills and lining up possible donors for a presidential bid. Even on Mrs. Clinton's home turf of New York, he's already won a few converts.

"He seems to approach problems with a very systematic, thoughtful, businesslike kind of approach," a Manhattan investment banker who went to college in Virginia, Patricia Caldwell, said in an interview. She said Mr.Warner recently visited Manhattan law firms and a large hedge fund, Cerberus Capital Management. "He's making the rounds in New York," she said.

Asked about Mrs. Clinton's chances, Ms. Caldwell said, "She polarizes people. I don't know why. People seem to dislike her without any reason...I think that problem is something she's going to have to address."

Ms. Caldwell said she thinks Democrats would do better nationally with Mr. Warner. "He's a Democrat flourishing in a Republican state. Personally, that sounds like someone who's electable," she said.

The Campaign Starts Now

2006-02-08T10:41:00.000-08:00

The USA today has an article called "White House hopefuls, activists are stirring" pointed to the rise of activity already occuring this early for the 2008 election. One of the primary issues Warner will have to face is the day the horde of Senators roll over their federal campaign war chests with millions of dollars into their presidential campaigns.

Clinton has raised $33.3 million for her 2006 Senate race. Todd says that puts her on track to reach $70 million to $100 million by November. Because congressional candidates are allowed to transfer money to White House bids, Todd estimates Clinton could start her presidential run with an instant $50 million.

When Kerry used $3 million from his 2002 Senate race to run for president, that was considered impressive, Todd says. "Now (Indiana Sen.) Evan Bayh is going to carry over $10 million, and everybody's going to say, 'It ain't $50 million.'"

This puts Warner in a position of having to jump out early and start taking "lumps" while the Senators raise money for their presidential runs while just "exploring" a bid.

The article also makes mention of one of Warner's best laugh lines.

Everyone is trying out well-worn material before new audiences. Then-Virginia governor Mark Warner drew laughs and praise for his response to a ringing cellphone during a speech in November to New Hampshire Democrats. He told them, as he has told hundreds of groups for years, that he was a founder of cellular technology and when he hears a cellphone ring, "I just think ka-ching, ka-ching."

Within the article, they also have a slide show of potential candidates. Warner's bio reads as follows:

Former Virginia Governor

Age:51

Personal: Millionaire cellphone entrepreneur won rural votes by promising jobs and gun rights.

Assets: Overwhelmingly popular in his red state--- even after raising taxes

Questions: Can business and political success offset lack of national security experience?

Defining Bush-lite

2006-02-08T10:21:00.000-08:00

Progressives have wrongly misused the term "Bush-lite" to describe anyone differing from their prescribed "pat" solutions or critiques. Sorry, but calling one of the most liberal Senators (Kerry), Bush-lite in 2003/04 was just too much. Yes, sure he had problems "dumbing" down and articulating his plans, but nevertheless they were solidly liberal in eight of ten times.

Progressives can't have credibility in the party by blindly throwing such terms around. We need to make sure we allowing progressivism to develop new ideas and grow. We can't be relevant to the electorate if we are stuck in the past.

"Bush-lite" to me, applies to Democrat who brings nothing new to the table. It is a "me-tooism" of a shallowness that includes having no big visions, offering no third-way of breaking the left-right deadlock or giving us the ability to reach new voters without losing all core principles.

Mark R. Warner and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson recently appeared together at the Emerging Issues Forum held at North Carolina State University. Notice the difference in approach on governmental / tax reform between the two potential candidates. From WRAL news...

Bill Richardson

Richardson described his approach of tax cuts, education and economic development the "New Progressivism."

"Now you're going to hear from a Democrat that is going to say this: Cutting taxes is good, being pro-business is good. Putting more money in people's pockets is good," Richardson said Monday.

Richardson, a former Clinton administration energy secretary, has also been traveling around the nation as chairman of the Democratic Governors Association with a similar story of bipartisan budgeting success after working with members of both parties to cut personal income and capital gains tax rates.

Richardson pointed to coalition building with the business community, labor and others as reasons for the state's recent success and a projected half-billion-dollar surplus this year.

"Democrats have to be more pro-economic growth.... We shouldn't be reflexively against cutting taxes," he said in an interview. "We should be a party that embraces competitiveness and economic growth."

Mark Warner

Warner said voters don't want partisanship, but rather honesty that people may need to make some sacrifices for government to achieve fiscal responsibility.

"People are so anxious to hear the truth. A little bit of truth can go a long way in the American political process today," Warner said.

Now out of a job, Warner has had more time to talk about how he helped turn a $6 billion budget shortfall into what could be a $1 billion surplus this year with tax cuts and tax increases approved with the help of a Republican-controlled Legislature.

"I don't think it's big government versus small government," he said. "It's smart government." Read entire article.

Admittedly, you can't read too much in from these small snippets. But what I like about Warner on so many topics is that he is continually trying to change the paradigm. He looking beyond thet paradigms of left and right and searching for new solutions, not just parroting the Club for Growth's talking points. Maybe we will be lucky and we will see a real "New Progressivism" emerge from Mark Warner.

National Review Starts Monthly Column to Bash Warner

2006-02-07T15:45:00.000-08:00

Last month, I posted to two National Review articles by Jim Geraghty and John Miller. Each article used a diferent line of attack versus Gov. Warner. Well if Warner suporters did not have confirmation of a substained attack before, a new National Review article by Peter Ferrara proves yes indeed, it is true. The main Republican magazine National Review is so scared shitless they have instituted a monthly attack column dedicated to a Southern governor who is unannounced for the Presidency a full three years out. How flattering it is!

Now to make it even better... This month's addition is penned by Peter Ferrara, a well-known Renta-Columnist. He just recently finished feeding his family by writing Op-Ed pieces for none other than Jack Abramoff. Does Renta-Columnist Ferrara have any regrets? Not in a recent Business Week article...

Peter Ferrara, a senior policy adviser at the conservative Institute for Policy Innovation, says he, too, took money from Abramoff to write op-ed pieces boosting the lobbyist's clients. "I do that all the time," Ferrara says. "I've done that in the past, and I'll do it in the future."

Ferrara, who has been an influential conservative voice on Social Security reform, among other issues, says he doesn't see a conflict of interest in taking undisclosed money to write op-ed pieces because his columns never violated his ideological principles.

"It's a matter of general support," Ferrara says. "These are my views, and if you want to support them, then that's good." But he adds that at some point over the years, Abramoff stopped working with him: "Jack lost interest in me and felt he had other writers who were writing in more prominent publications," Ferrara says.

Ferrara began working at the Institute for Policy Innovation after the period during which he wrote the op-ed pieces for Abramoff. Earlier, he worked at the activist anti-tax organization Americans for Tax Reform.

Ferrara wouldn't say which publications have published pieces for which Abramoff paid him. But a review of his work shows that he wrote articles for The Washington Times that were favorable to the Choctaw Indians and the Mariana Islands. He also wrote a 1998 book called The Choctaw Revolution: Lessons for Federal Indian Policy. Ferrara says the tribe paid him directly for his work on the book, which was published by the Americans for Tax Reform Foundation and is still available for sale on Amazon.com. Read entire article.

Peter Ferrara’s guest column called "The Virginia Miracle? Puh-lease!" ended up being the exactly the kind of lies and distortions Ferrara used against Warner when he was head of the Virginia Club for Growth. Matter of fact, whomever paid him to write the National Review piece should ask for their money back since it looks a lot like an earlier piece he wrote for the VCG.

In 2005, Ferrara and the Club for Big Money went after 15 Senate Republicans and the 19 Republican Delegates they wanted to defeat in 2005. These were Republicans who in seeing the crushing budget deficits partnered with Warner to cut spending and raise taxes (called being responsible). So did Virginia voters side with Ferrara in 2005 and punish the "bad" Republicans that the Club for Big Money was targetting?

A resounding NO. Virginia voters returned all Club for Growth targets back to office, ignored Ferrara's distortions and "to boot" elected a Warner protégé. I believe the American people will do the same.

Hmmm... His picture is intriguing. Given Ferrara's dealing with Abramoff and gambling, does anyone know if he got scalped?

Ideas for Using Warner's PAC Money

2006-02-07T01:27:00.000-08:00

Always happy to spend other people’s money, I have an idea for spending Warner’s PAC money.

The election in 2006 presents a great opportunity for Warner to get out and press the flesh with Democratic candidates for federal races. He'll need to make sure he has money available to write those $5000 checks to congressional candidates (FT is federal only) and pay for travel to campaign with them. If he is looking at targeting just competitive races and strategically located federal (Iowa, New Hampshire, etc.) candidates he is probably looking at donations to over 100 candidates totaling $500k.

Warner would be well served to look beyond just competitive races if the money keeps flowing. The Democratic grassroots are captivated by the idea that Democrats must start building a "farm league" in non-competitive districts in order to win over the long-term (The Dean model). This fits very well with Warner's experience as a red-stater who knows how to compete and win outside the traditional Democratic strongholds.

Were Warner to seize that specific non-ideological element of the grassroots platform and use several hundred thousand of his PAC money to support "non-competitive" races on principle of building for the future (think capital investment), he would quickly become a champion to a lot of Democratic activists who might be to the left of him on policy issues. Image Warner speaking at events for Democratic activists telling them he believes in their goal to compete in every race, and rather than just giving lip service he is "putting his money where his mouth is."

If one of those non-competitive 2006 congressional races become competitive and Warner threw more support helping the Democrats come out with a win, he would have a story that activists would love to hear on the stump.

The chambers of Daily Kos and MyDD would be alive with praise.

Warner's Leadership PAC

2006-02-07T00:03:00.000-08:00

Pundits often point to the early numbers from Leadership PACs to show how viable a potential candidate will be in the upcoming primaries. Not surprisingly, Mark Warner's Presidential PAC, Forward Together, took top honors among the current Democratic hopefuls for the nomination in 2008. He only started to raise money in the last half of last year, but he still took in 3.3 million dollars.

Not too bad, although his "cash on hand" is only 2.4 million. According to the FEC site, FT spent over 900k. Seems like a lot of start up fees / staff / travel costs, since only $51k was distributed to candidates or committees, but with PACs getting to the details of what is being spend is difficult. Hopefully it is being well spent, as he will need to distribute a lot of money in 2006 and again for 2008.

Against Warner's competition for the "moderate" mantel, he did quite well. Edwards seems to have lost the ability to excite Democratic voters and donors. His One America Committee only raised $625k last year with dismal $23k cash on hand. Bayh' s All America PAC raised $1,551,430.49 last year, but most of that was in the first half of the year, his second half was only $379k. Vilsack's PAC was second to Warner and raised 1.6 million. Of course this number might be skewed since Heartland PAC is not a federal PAC. Unlike the highly regulated federal PAC that can only intake $5,000 at a time, many state PACs can intake unlimited sums from one donor. Clinton who most likely will not be in contention for the moderate mantel, but still the far-and-away Democratic front-runer, raised $113k for her HillPac. Granted her leadership PAC has rightly not been a priority as she is focusing on raising millions for her Senate re-election. Plus the funds she raises for the Senate can be transferred to her Presidential campaign.

Which brings us to another point; Warner needs to be able to raise funds that can be used for a Presidential right after the 2006 election. If he needs to declare early, so be it. Since he is facing a slew of Washington Senators who can essentially raise for their "Senate campaigns" and transfer money, he is going to start at a significant disadvantage.

Daily Kos has a detailed run down of the leadership PACs here. (Note: I believe his Bayh numbers are incorrect).

MyDD Poll

2006-02-03T01:33:00.000-08:00

MyDD has a Presidential poll up. They have an interesting way they compile the poll. Voters rank their preferences for candidates, then the poll compiles the winner through a series of run-offs. Even though I voted for Warner in the final tally, my vote counted for Clark.

Go vote here.

From the Governor’s Mansion to 1600 Pennsylvania

2006-02-02T16:34:00.000-08:00

I have a guest essay from Casey a member of the Draft Warner group. Enjoy!

5 Reasons Why Governor Warner should be the Democrats’ pick for ‘08

By Casey Jason Jr.

The Democrat’s best hope for the White House in 2008 is nominating Governor Warner of Virginia. This statement seems odd to many Democrats in and outside of the beltway because until recently the response to mentioning Governor Warner was: Who? Now, he is on the radar. These are five reasons why he, not Senator Hillary Clinton, should be the pick for the Democrats in 2008.

1. Warner is NDA: Nascar Dad Approved.
Governor Warner has a 75% approval rating in his home state of Virginia. This fact is critical. Virginia has not been won by a Democrat in a Presidential election since LBJ, but that can change. This 75% approval rating in Virginia will help him carry his state and win the White House. With the recent election of Tim Kaine as Governor, (with the conventional wisdom being that Kaine was a much more liberal candidate than Warner) Governor Warner proved that he has coattails in a very Red State.

2. The Trouble With Hillary-Part-1
I will not use the clichéd arguments why Senator Hillary Clinton should not be the nominee: she is divisive and she incites the Republican base. These are tired arguments that do not get to the heart of why the Senator is a poor choice for the Democratic Presidential nomination. She is a poor choice for two fundamental reasons: 1. She is from a "Blue State" and 2. She is a Senator. The Democratic Party must finally come to the realization that Blue States are a given for the Democrats in the Electoral College. Unless the Democrats re-nominate Mondale, they will win New York, California, Illinois, Maine and the majority of the Kerry states.

To put it bluntly, the Democrats don’t need New York, they need the swing states like Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, or Florida. To win, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes. Here we go, it is time to brush off your Electoral College calculator, clean off your dry erase boards and do some basic math. Let us assume the Kerry states remain static. Governor Warner has a 75% approval rating in Virginia; if Kerry had taken Virginia he would have been only 5 votes shy of the Presidency. That’s it. Governor Warner could choose Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico as his VP and New Mexico would trend blue. Senator Clinton is a remarkable woman and politician, but she is from a Blue State that is almost a guaranteed win for the Democrats. She still would have to win Ohio or Florida. This is unlikely. Moderate Red State Democrats have more traction in the heartland over their blue state Democratic counter-parts. Governor Warner harkens to another Red State Democrat who won the Presidency twice. According to the Electoral College results, Bill Clinton carried the following Red States in 1992 (When you read this list, please ask yourself if you believe that Hillary Clinton could be popular enough in the heartland to carry any of these states): 1. Montana, 2. Colorado, 3. Kentucky, 4.Lousiana, 5. Arkansas. 6. Nevada, 7. Missouri, 8. Iowa, 9. Ohio, 10. West Virginia, 11. Georgia, 12. Tennessee, 13. New Mexico. Read this list again and wonder if a charismatic Red State Democrat could win any of them.

3. The Trouble With Hillary- Part Two.
She is a Senator. Only two sitting Senators have ever won the White House: Warren G. Harding and John F. Kennedy. In fact, it has been argued by many that Kennedy owed his win in key states - Texas and Illinois - to creative vote tallying. Be that as it may, Senator Clinton would have to face the charges that are always leveled at Senators: that they are compromisers, not leaders.

4. Iraq- A Clear Policy- What is it good for? Absolutely Nothin’.
The best thing about Governor Warner’s views about foreign policy is that he does not have a record yet. Senator Clinton and the other Democrats have already gone on record with their individual strategies for solving the problem in Iraq. She has suggested in the past that we increase troop levels in Iraq, but lately the Senate Democrats have favored a pull-out, with which Clinton would have difficulty separating herself. It would be challenging for Clinton to avoid the label of “flip flopper.” In fact, it is impossible to have consistent voting records in the Senate because the nature of the political system requires that the legislature engage in compromise. However, the people want consistency. The public wants to know where their President stands. Some critics have argued that Iraq will be a key issue in 2008. If so, Warner can take a page from the Republican’s play book. Warner can surround himself with experts in foreign policy, comforting the American people. Also, since he did not make the promise to stay in Iraq, Warner has great latitude in drafting an exit strategy. He can in turn use this “newly created secret plan” as a campaign platform that he has an honorable exit for the United States from Iraq. That campaign strategy worked before and can work again.

5. The L-Word-
Senator Clinton will be labeled as a Liberal because of location, location, location. Even though she has tried to move to the center, the liberal label will stick merely because she is a New York Senator just as it worked against Senator Kerry because he was from Massachusetts. If she were the Governor of Arkansas, she would not have this problem. Unfortunately, Senator Hillary Clinton is not President Bill Clinton. Governor Warner, unlike the Senator from New York, is from a Red State that loves him. His leadership has created a booming economy that outpaces the Nation’s. Governor Warner has accomplished this in a state that has a balanced budget amendment. When it was recently determined that his state’s economy was better than the Nation’s, he advocated restraint in spending. In short, Governor Warner has earned his fiscal conservative stripes. In doing so, he has earned the respect of his constituents and he cannot be labeled as a liberal. Four years ago, the Republicans attempted to label Governor Warner a Liberal in the 2001 Gubernatorial Election of 2001, but that failed. Instead, Warner was victorious because his true label was clear: he was a Virginian. All of these reasons make Warner the best choice for the Democrats. Whereas, Hillary Clinton’s candidacy fails because of something she cannot dispute: Hillary Clinton is a New York Senator.

Blog Posts with Technorati

2006-02-02T15:58:00.000-08:00

I have added a new feature to the bottom right hand of the site. I created charts for the number of blog entries for each of the major Democratic candidates.

Provided by Technorati, the chart calculates the number of blog posts and feeds you back a chart. The chart isn't a hundred percentage accurate since the entire combination of words might not appear. For instance, my chart for Warner is based on three words, Mark, Warner and President. If any of those three words are not recorded in a post it isn't counted. A full 50% of my own posts to a dedicated Warner site would not fit that criteria.

What these charts do tell you about is trending and spikes. Notice the day after Kaine gave the rebuttal to the State of the Union, blogs spiked sharply mentioning Warner. This should be a fun tool to watch as the campaign progresses.

Posts that contain Mark Warner President per day for the last 30 days.

You'll also notice Hillary has significantly more blog entries than other potential candidates. Primarily it is because she is the front-runner. Secondarily, there are an unbelievable number of conservative blogs who just can't stop talking about her.

Atlantic Monthly Party-Goers Like Warner

2006-02-02T15:12:00.000-08:00

Ben Smith of the NY Observer has a blog stating at a New York elite party, Warner and McCain were the favorites to win their party's nominations.

At the Atlantic Monthly's State of the Union party Tuesday night, Jim Fallows conducted a little presidential poll of the roughly 60-member audience, a kind of money-media-power elite blend.

The question: "Who is the likely Democratic nominee for President?"

To my correspondent's surprise, 32% picked Mark Warner; only 25% said Hillary Rodham Clinton. (More evidence of Clinton political brilliance! It was, after all, getting to be about time to shed that "frontrunner" albatross.)

On the Republican side, a full 62% (a number that no doubt included Georgette Mosbacher, who was in the audience) said John McCain will be the GOP nominee. See post.

I wouldn't make too much of Clinton positioning to make Warner the front-runner. If these folks are non-Hollywood media or high tech types, they are Warner's base. He has a lot of friends in those industries. I would presume from his days building up the communications telecom company NEXTEL.

All of Y'all

2006-02-01T07:12:00.000-08:00

You got to give it to Warner, he knows how to work with the not so bright bulbs out there. The Tidewater's WAVY-TV has an article called Mark Warner, Allen Double-Team for College R&D Funds. Seems Warner joined Kaine and Allen in NOVA land to push for research and development money.

Allen, governor from 1994 to 1998, effusively praised Warner's unprecedented proposed outlay for research and development as long overdue and timely.

"Now the budget proposals before all of y'all in the General Assembly, I think it's going to help leverage literally millions and millions of dollars from the federal government," Allen said.

Now I am a Southern boy who uses y'all quite liberally, but what the heck is "all of y'all?" All, I know. Y'all, I know. I have even heard of good old boys in the deep south say "all y'all, come here." But "All of y'all?"

"All of y'all" sounds to me like a patronizing Yankee trying to "hick it up good." Where is Allen from anyway?

The ironic part is that Allen now wants to spend the tax surplus in Virginia on research and development. However, he opposed the tax restructuring in Virginia by Warner that created the surplus. Well I don't know anyone who has accused Allen of being bright, since he has just kinda ambled along in life on his father's name. Especially humorous how a "small government" conservative is so excited about getting not just millions in federal government money, but "literally millions and millions of dollars." Hat tip to Politicalwire.com for NY Times article below.

"Wall Street may be intensely interested in just about every word ever uttered by" incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, "but in Washington, he is barely on some people's radar screens," the New York Times reports. The Fed chairman is typcially considered the most powerful unelected post in the government.

When asked for his opinion on Bernanke's nomination, all Sen. George Allen (R-VA) could muster was the response, "For what?"

"Told that Mr. Bernanke was up for the Fed chairman's job, Mr. Allen hedged a little, said he had not been focused on it, and wondered aloud when the hearings would be. Told that the Senate Banking Committee hearings had concluded in November, the senator responded: 'You mean I missed them all? I paid no attention to them.'" See entire article.

Case Study #1 on the Democratic Washington Consultants

2006-02-01T02:53:00.000-08:00

The only times Democrats elect a President is when they clash with their own pundrity of Washington based Democratic consultants and nominate a Clinton or Carter.

The following article just shows how "out of touch of" our losing group of Democratic consultants are about what elects a President.

Ron Goldstein is a perfect example of "in the bubble" thinking our Washington Democratic consultants have boxed themselves (and us) into. Goldstein who does events and media for a living writes Joe Biden is the Democrats best shot to win the Presidency. Yep, you heard it right, Joe Biden. And why?

1) Biden has held public office far longer than any of the new crop of possible presidential candidates
2) He is influential member and former chairman of both the Judiciary and Foreign Relations Committees
3) He’s not a bad-looking guy, and his performances seem real, not wooden like those of the last two Democratic nominees
4) Unlike Howard Dean, his outrage and passion is controlled, not manic.
5) As for geography, how about Delaware? It may be small, but it is a state stuck smack in the mid-Atlantic area, a gateway between the Northeast with its great metropolitan areas and the critical Southeast
Read entire article.

So Delaware has now become the "Gateway to the South?" Ha-ha. Since when is being a Washington insider helpful?

The winner of the Democratic nomination in 2008 will need to be a Washington outsider in order to win in the fall. Vilsack, Richardson, Warner and to some degree Feingold fit the bill. Our Democratic chattering classes still don't get it.

Another Daily Kos Presidential Straw Poll

2006-02-01T01:16:00.000-08:00

Kos has put out another Presidential straw poll.

At the time of post, the poll stands at:

Feingold - 30%
Clark - 22%
Warner - 12%
Edwards - 8%

Vote in Poll here.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll

2006-01-25T21:10:00.000-08:00

Sigh, I would rather give Warner commentary, but since he is off in Europe meeting with Tony Blair there isn't much to talk about. So I am happy a supporter of Hillary has joined the discussion on the blog. One of the best things about Warner being an unknown is lack of baggage, and ability to appeal to a wide range of people. However irrationally, there is significant portion of voters who under no circumstances will consider Hillary no matter how great her policies.

http://poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=21103

Released today a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll (Jan 20-22) asked register voters about their support for Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2008.

Definitely vote for 16%

Might consider voting for 32%

Definitely not vote for 51%

No opinion 1%

I like Hillary and like her policies, but Democrats are inherently disadvantaged by the Electoral College and our minority Party status in Presidential race. We can't afford to have baggage too.

Governor's Approval Ratings

2006-01-24T20:15:00.000-08:00

The new SurveyUSA polls for governor's approvals are out. Taken on 1/19/06, Mark Warner has 72% approval rating in Virginia, a Bush 04 state. I have placed all Governors numbers in bold if they are of a different party than their state voted for in the 2004 Presidential election. (Note, Dem Joe Manchin WV has great numbers following his tireless work during the recent miner accident).

APPROVAL RATINGS FOR THE TOP TEN GOVERNORS AS OF 1/19/06

1 West Virginia Manchin, Joe D 80% 16% 64% WV
2 Utah Huntsman, Jon R 78% 14% 64% UT
3 Connecticut Rell, Jodi R 75% 17% 58% CT
3 North Dakota Hoeven, John R 75% 19% 56% ND
5 South Dakota Rounds, Mike R 73% 21% 52% SD
6 Virginia Warner, Mark D 72% 22% 50% VA
7 Vermont Douglas, Jim R 69% 25% 44% VT
8 Montana Schweitzer, Brian D 68% 25% 43% MT
9 New Hampshire Lynch, John D 67% 25% 42% NH
10 Oklahoma Henry, Brad D 66% 27% 39% OK
See entire list:

Gore Campaign Loser Brazile Doesn't Like Warner

2006-01-24T19:55:00.000-08:00

Recently Mark Warner appeared on ABC's "This Week" program hosted by George Stephanopoulos to discuss national politics. The reviews are in at least from the Democratic Oracle of Adelphia, Donna Brazile, who has decided she doesn't like Mark Warner. She is especially indignant that he would dare to admire a Republican President from one hundred years ago. (Note to Donna, just wondering if you dislike Lincoln also?)

But Warner's performance in the interview failed to impress Donna Brazile, a Democratic consultant who helped manage Al Gore's unsuccessful bid for president in 2000.

Brazile said she wouldn't have picked Roosevelt as a presidential model.

"Mark Warner has a lot to learn before he's ready for prime time," she observed afterward.

Shocking indeed are her thoughts on Warner. Remember her last opportunity where she "saw into the future," I take you back to two months before the Iowa caucus. In referencing the Al Gore endorsement of Howard Dean:

"It's huge," said Donna Brazile, Gore's campaign manager in 2000. "Al Gore has enormous stature and credibility. This endorsement will give Howard Dean a tremendous boost. It immediately allows Howard Dean to run a 50-state campaign, to raise money and help validate him with voters who don't know him yet, to bring minorities and women to the table who as yet have been undecided." See entire article.

Hmmmmm... Okay now. Returning to the Stephanopoulos interview with Warner.

Former Gov. Mark R. Warner said yesterday that he would not have chosen Judge Samuel A. Alito Jr. as a U.S. Supreme Court nominee, but he declined to say whether he would vote for Alito if he were in the Senate.

Warner, appearing on ABC's "This Week" program hosted by George Stephanopoulos, said he objects to Alito's views on the right to privacy. The Supreme Court, in the Roe v. Wade decision, determined that a woman's right to privacy established a constitutional right to an abortion in certain circumstances.

"But I think I would owe him, as I would owe anyone, the benefit of the doubt until I had a real chance to study his record," Warner said, according to a transcript of the program.

Warner, who left office Saturday, said he hasn't decided whether to seek the Democratic nomination to run for president in 2008, but he said he wants to participate in the debate.

He described U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, the frontrunner for the nomination, as "an extraordinarily formidable candidate" and declined to criticize her.

Warner was interviewed for the program last week in Virginia's Executive Mansion.

Asked how he would counter criticism that he has no foreign-policy experience, Warner noted that Stephanopoulos' former boss, Bill Clinton, had no foreign-policy experience when he was elected president in 1992. Warner acknowledged that the post-Sept. 11 environment might have made such experience more important.

He said his role model as president is Theodore Roosevelt. Had Roosevelt been living today, the progressive Republican likely would have been a Democrat, Warner said. See entire article.

Who Can Win the Red States? Hillary, huh...

2006-01-24T15:29:00.000-08:00

Confession: I am a donor to Hillary's Senate campaign.

But did anyone see Hillary's "Plantation" comments on MLK day? I didn't think anything about it until I saw the video on The Daily Show. I was stunned by how inappropriate and patronizing it seemed. The video really gave me a different perspective on how broad her appeal as a Presidential candidate would be.

Seems some in the Clinton team have been arguing that Hillary can win Red States. The reason why they believe this? She did so well in upstate New York, which they compare to the make-up of red states. Arianna Huffington challenges this argument with a line of reasoning every Warner supporter know.

Sounds very convincing. The trouble is, it's wrong -- as Marisa Katz shows in this week's New Republic in her terrific takedown of the Upstate = Red State myth. "Numbers-wise," Katz writes, "upstate [New York] is far more purple than red." And she reminds us that "even in this less-than-hostile-terrain" Hillary "actually lost upstate by three points to her 2000 opponent, Rick Lazio."

Even more damning is the fact that the presidential runs of both Al Gore and John Kerry attracted more upstate voters -- and carried more upstate counties -- than Hillary did. "If Gore and Kerry won upstate New York," writes Katz, "but couldn't make sufficient red-state inroads, Clinton's loss upstate doesn't seem to bode well for her potential in truly red parts of the country." The final nail in the upstate/redstate coffin: Hillary's upstate numbers are very similar to those of the senior senator from New York, Chuck Schumer -- and, as Katz zings it, "no one is talking him up as the Democrats' best chance to reclaim the White House." Read entire post.

Hillary hasn't even announced yet for President, and we all want her to do well in her Senate race in 2006, so I don't think the case needs to be made yet about who can win in Red States. But in the next few years, Democrats need to find a strategy in at least some Red States to be competitive for the Presidency.

One thing I do know is that Bush beat Kerry by 9 points in Virginia. Warner does not need "iffy" hypotheticals to prove he can win red states.

"Retirement" Looks Busy

2006-01-24T10:41:00.000-08:00

Jerome Armstrong posts an update to the FTblog on what Gov. Warner is doing in his retirement. The summary version below:

UK - Meeting with Tony Blair
Switzerland - Davos Economic forum
North Carolina - NC State Emerging Issues Forum
New Hampshire - Keynote "100 Club" Dinner
California (LA) - American Council on Education
California (SD) - Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society
Read more...

Warner Has Work to do in Iowa

2006-01-23T19:45:00.000-08:00

The Fix has an interview with Jeff Link, an Iowa political operative. He makes some good observations on the Iowa caucus in general. He then dives into a good discussion on the 2008 possible candidates including Warner.

"The no. 1 question in Iowa is whether Vilsack is going to get a campaign off the ground and be a candidate," said Link. "People want to know what he is going to do before they get past 'hello' with these other candidates." Most Iowa Democrats are excited about the possibility of Vilsack in the presidential mix but aren't optimistic about his chances. "People are reluctant about Vilsack because they don't think we can elect an Iowan president," Link said.

Link believes that the other potential 2008 candidates can't wait for Vilsack to make up his mind. They need to make several pilgrimages to the state over the next year to begin the "introductory phase" of the courting process, he said.

Take former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner for example. While Warner is riding high among the chattering class and the national media, he is still unknown among Hawkeye State Democratic voters who "don't know the Mark Warner story," said Link.

Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, on the other hand, has made a strong first impression in Iowa, a near-necessity for the Midwestern senator who needs to make a splash in the caucuses to have a real chance in 2008. Link said one of Bayh's most deft moves in Iowa came during a recent visit when he praised Vilsack and referred to them as "brothers." Read more:

Warner is going to do well in the mid-west, but is going to need to get busy in 2006. I don't see Bayh as a real threat to Warner, but Warner does need to start working the Chicago money scene. If noting else he should "dry" up a large source of capital for Bayh.

Right Hand to Deliver State of the Union Rebuttal

2006-01-23T15:12:00.000-08:00

Roll Call reported on Friday, Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine will deliver the Democratic response to President Bush for the State of the Union. This will certainly give Warner another shot in the arm and keep him in the news cycle. It would be hard to image that the former governor isn’t going to be discussed heavily in the aftermath of Kaine's speech.

National Democratic leaders today will ask Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine (D) to deliver the party’s response to the president’s State of the Union address, believing that the new governor can best deliver their 2006 message of inclusiveness, American values and high ethical standards. Read More:

Spicy, not bland

2006-01-23T12:54:00.000-08:00

Too funny for words is the only way to describe what the "staff/allies" of other potential Presidential candidates are calling Gov. Warner. The U.S. News and World Report's Washington Whispers reports Warner is being derided as "Nutmeg Mark."

"And, strategists add, he might not face Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Seems a lot of pols still believe that Al Gore will enter the race as the 'anti Hillary.' But don't dismiss another Democrat, former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner. How do we know? The moderate is being assailed as a fake southerner by allies of other Democratic candidates, a sure sign they see him as a threat. Some deride him as "Nutmeg Mark," a reference to his growing up in the Nutmeg State, Connecticut." Read more:

I think it is funny that Warner’s detractors are stretching so hard to criticize him. They can’t touch his record of delivering results in Virginia. He is the American dream, a middle class kid who was first in his family to go to college and ended up building a Fortune 500 company. What his detractors are actually trying to say is, “he is pretending that he is something he is not.” Well since you brought it up…

First, I have never heard Warner call himself a southerner in the cultural sense, only a Virginian (geographic).

Second, the fact, he lived all over the country is a plus for our now transient society. Can't image having lived in Connecticut will hurt him in New Hampshire or his childhood in Indiana/Illinois hurts him in Iowa.

Third, Southerners actually like Warner. This being despite his mid-west roots in Indiana, Illinois and northeastern experience in Connecticut. Can you say that Southerners like Hillary, Kerry, Bayh, Biden, Feingold and the rest of the legion of Democratic Senators in the race? Hmmmmmm...

Fourth, being southern is a state of mind.

Fifth, please keep giving Warner more publicity even naming him after spices as it only helps. And by the way, thanks for all the recent Senate.gov hits to the site.

Given our recent Democratic attempts at the presidency, I would like to point out the benefits of nutmeg on ones health.

Regarding its health benefits, nutmeg is believed to aid digestion and relieve nausea and the sensation of vomiting. Read more at Healthrecipes.com:

National Review on Warner

2006-01-19T16:11:00.000-08:00

The main magazine of conservativism has two articles focusing on Mark Warner this month. Much like a boxer pacing before a bout, conservatives are sizing up a formidable potential challenger. For Warner, this should be the ultimate form of flattery to have the "main organ of conservativism" after you three years before the election.

In article one, Jim Geraghty nervously wonders if there is a nefarious Mark Warner-Deaniac courtship occurring. He seems to suggest by Warner reaching out to bloggers like Jerome Armstrong and Markos Moulitsas Zuniga, it has made him palatable to the Dean revolutionaries.

There are two conclusions to be drawn from this. One is that Mark Warner shouldn’t be caricaturized as the “conservative,” “centrist,” or “moderate” candidate in the race when he's willing to associate himself with the fervent antiwar left for his support. Secondly, some (including myself) have predicted that the Deaniacs of 2004 would be a ready-made engine for a liberal challenger to Hillary Clinton in 2008 — Feingold, Gore, or perhaps some other Democrat seeking to represent “the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.” That assessment ought to be reconsidered; at least some of them appear to be demonstrating they’ll back any Democrat who looks like he can win some red states. Read entire post.

John Miller pens another article called A Dem Golden Boy. Largely he is struck by the "stupidity" of Virginians on how Warner could break his tax promise and "gasp" get away with it. Read entire post.

From Miller's article, looks like conservatives mode of operation is to paint Warner as a "tax and spend" liberal. Oh boy, this tired line to use on a businessman job creator and governor who decreased unemployment. This could be fun if that is all they got!

2006-01-19T15:31:00.000-08:00

In a relatively brief post on his Forward Together PAC blog, former Gov. Warner joins the ranks of bloggers and discusses having to learn to drive again after four years of being His Excellency.

He does "slip" with his Presidential ambitions when he refers to attending foreign policy sessions on Iran as on the Forward Together front. Sounds to me there should be no mistake, FT means a Presidential run in 2008.

On the Forward Together front, I've been going through a series of meetings on foreign policy with some special emphasis on the situation in Iran.

I leave soon for a trip to London and a policy conference in Switzerland so the schedule stays very full. Read entire post.

If anyone knows who is advising him on Iran, I would love to know. It would tell a lot about which direct a Warner administration would take in foreign policy.

Ouch! Allen Gets Sacked by Warner for 25 yards

2006-01-19T13:15:00.000-08:00

Larry Sabato's UVA Center for Survey Research conducted a Presidential poll of Virginians in the wake of Kaine's victory in November. Pitting Gov. Warner versus Sen. Allen resulted in a rather one-sided result heavily favoring Warner for President.

Warner 49%
Allen 32%
Undecided 20%

When Daily Kos linked to the story, numerous posters said the selfless choice for Warner is to run for Senate in 2006 against Allen. Granted, most likely these posters are supporters of other Presidential candidates, but I think they miss Warner's real appeal as a leader. My tongue-in-cheek response below:

Warner would be a wasted talent in the Senate.

First, he is former CEO, an entrepreneur heart. He is best at focusing on results, creating and selling a vision. The atmosphere in Washington is so poisoned, who could stand two years in the "do nothing, but talk Senate." After all, how would you like to go from hard-charging executive focused on bi-partisanly solving policy issues to reactionary legislator focused solely on scoring political points?

Second, he doesn't have the Senatorial verbosity to play the Senate game well. He isn't well spoken enough for the intellectuals in the Democratic party to like him. How cares if he connects to rural Virginians so well if he can't one-up the Republicans on "Meet the Press?"

Think Bill Clinton / Al Gore 1992... Youth, vision, energy...

http://www.warnerobama2008.com/

Can you image that ticket? And best yet, it gets Obama out of the Senate in 3 years before he can be corrupted into "alternative reality of the Senate!"

If you want to join the discussion on Daily Kos to throw in your two cents, click here.

Besides the poll, Sabato's Crystal Ball website has an excellent round up on the possible Democratic nominees. View the excepts relating to Mark Warner below or click here for the entire post:

And now to the Democrats. The most compelling element of the 2008 contest for the Democrats, in the Crystal Ball's view, will be their burning desire to end GOP control of the White House. George W. Bush's reign will have extended over eight years, but to Democrats, who deeply despise this President, it has already seemed like an eternity. Hatred of a President among party activists can produce wise or unwise outcomes. Democratic true believers may incorrectly think that their fellow citizens fully share their opinion of Bush and will inevitably elect the person they choose as their nominee in order to punish the Republicans for Bush's multitudinous sins. Or Democrats may allow reason to triumph over emotion by picking a nominee who does not fulfill all their liberal fantasies but has a good chance of winning.

Today much of the Washington punditocracy is betting that Democratic ideology will once again trample electability, producing a left-wing or controversial presidential candidate who will elect McCain, Allen, or whoever secures the GOP nod. The Crystal Ball understands this, given the Democratic Party's modern history, but we choose the opposite scenario. We guess that, for once (or more, if you count Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992), Democrats will select a more moderate, possible winner--perhaps after an early flirtation or two with more ideologically pleasing contenders.

The moderate Democrats have several options, but one now stands out above the rest. Governor Mark Warner has just finished a successful stint in Virginia's top job, having well managed a difficult fiscal situation and also having elected a more liberal successor, Tim Kaine, in a conservative Red State. Warner built an attractive record in a wide variety of areas, from education to mental health to the environment, and he truly made the most of the one four-year term to which Virginia's Constitution still limits its governors, consecutively. Although a certified suburban yuppie, Warner made deep inroads in rural areas by lavishing attention upon rural people and their problems. He adopted NASCAR, country music, and an antipathy to gun control. With roots in Indiana and Connecticut, not just Virginia, Warner has the wealth and the appeal to run an impressive national campaign. Southern Democrats and many DLCers have flocked to him especially in the wake of Warner's 2005 off-year triumph in November. Having praised Caeser, Brutus should note Warner's drawbacks as a presidential candidate. The rich communications mogul has only served a total of four years in public office; he has no foreign policy experience at all; and he famously broke his insistent, George H.W. Bush-like 2001 campaign pledge that he would not raise taxes. Whether Democrats or the country as a whole actually care about any of these sour notes, only the 2008 campaign itself will demonstrate.

Surprise candidates are just as possible on the Democratic side as the Republican. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois would automatically land in the top tier the instant he announced. He says he won't run in '08, and likely he is telling the truth--though the VP slot is a real possibility for this charismatic African-American.

As always, the presidential contest will be decided in November 2008 by the big issues of war and peace, the economy, and scandal. Yet the personalities, characters, and positioning of the candidates loom large as well. Should one party pick a nominee who is manifestly closer to the nation's large moderate, independent pool of voters, that party will be on track to victory--especially if the other party has selected a standard-bearer widely viewed as an ideologue of left or right. The age-old clash of ideology versus electability will be visible on both sides of the partisan divide in 2008. The party that veers nearer to the practical pole of electability will be more
likely to prevail at the voting polls in November.

Gov. Warner's Farewell Address

2006-01-13T14:29:00.000-08:00

Washington Post has an article on Warner's farewell speech.

"Virginians have told me three things," Warner said. "That results matter, that they're proud of the direction we're going, and a third thing: You know, they really appreciate it when we work out our differences and work together to get things done."

The businessman-turned-politician, who can still be called "His Excellency" for a few more days, said lawmakers in both parties deserve to share the credit for an improving state economy, higher student test scores, more jobs, stronger colleges and a more efficient state government. But Warner said he is proudest of "something that can't be measured" and praised "a cooperative spirit that, actually, no balance sheet shows." Referring to bipartisan efforts to pass legislation, he said the public believes "we changed the tone in Richmond." Read the entire article.

Sadly if you read down into the rest of the article it looks like the tone in Richmond is changing back. There is something to be said for strong personalities.

FP on Blogs

2006-01-12T18:15:00.000-08:00

Seems Joe Johaneman has made his choice for President over at Blogcritic. There is a healthly discussion going in the blogs comments from supporters of other Presidential candidates who have "Warner" envy. lol

Finally, there's Mark Warner (Governor, Virginia). Warner seems to be the best choice for the Democrats in 2008. He's certainly one of the most popular governors Virginia has ever had, with approval ratings near 75%, and this is in a state that is primarily Republican. He has broad appeal, and is popular with Independents and moderate Republicans. Like Easley, he isn't well known at the national level, but he is known by Democratic political insiders, thus making it possible for him to raise a substantial amount of money to support a campaign. He has been criticized for being too low-key, but this is simply a result of him choosing his battles carefully.

And so, as 2008 slowly approaches, here is a potential map for the Democrats: nominate Warner and throw every dollar available into his campaign. He may very well be the best candidate for the Democratic Party, and for the nation. Read more.

Reading in the comments, it really kills me that many Democrats (mainly Biden supporters) still think you need foreign policy experience to convince the American people to TRUST you on foreign policy. The reality is actually, the more FP experience you have, the longer your record, the more the Republicans have to pick it apart. The American people don't want the Harvard Professor with 10 honorary degrees to run the White House's foreign policy. Their wishes are more simply stated, they want someone who they "trust to do the right thing."

But to call Warner an international Neophyte is downright silly. He is the only Democrat in the field who has CREATED an international Fortune 500 company, Nextel. Last time I heard Walmart was the eight largest economy in the world. We had better start leaving the simple national paradigm of the neo-cons behind, and start thinking of the world of ethnic and religious groups, cultures, corporations, and NGOs in competition with traditional states. Who is better suited to lead us into that future than Warner?

I'd take an entrepreneur over a verbose Senator any day in trying to gain America's trust on any issue. Give me the guy who grew up middle class, went to public schools and made a million. Now that is the American dream!

How Did I Let This "Gem" Slip By?

2006-01-12T17:25:00.000-08:00

I just discovered this Washington Post article from 01-02 about how Warner is getting high-tech companies to set up in rural Virginia. Must have missed it due to bowl games... Roll Tide!

Virginia under Warner's leadership requires any company bidding on multi-billion dollar state contracts has to set up shop in rural towns of the Commonwealth. The state has been using other funds to build the telecom infrastructure to support these high-tech businesses.

LEBANON, Va. -- In this town of 3,300 people, cow pastures encase the local high school, churches outnumber nightclubs 14 to zero and the unemployment rate is almost twice as high as the rest of the state.
This is where government contractors CGI-AMS Inc. and Northrop Grumman Corp. will in the next few months start building multimillion-dollar technology centers and hire hundreds of software engineers at salaries far above the region's average, bringing a taste of Washington's lucrative tech sector to a coal country enclave. Read more.

Good Article By the Post

2006-01-11T11:11:00.000-08:00

The Washington Post has a must read article by Michael D. Shear taking a look back at the Warner's time in the VA Governor's mansion.

You really get a sense of who Warner is from this article: half-energizer bunny and half Rocky. He is a guy with the deck stacked against him, just keeps coming back with boundless energy.

The article is verbosely titled: Warner's Triumphant Legacy No Easy Feat: Bipartisan-Minded Governor Broke Tax Vow but Revived Va, but once you get beyond the title there is some real meat. Excerpts from the article below:

On the Warner Narrative:

RICHMOND -- Mark Robert Warner, the businessman-turned-politician, faced an immense budget gap, a steep learning curve and a legislature happy to see him fail when he was inaugurated as Virginia's 69th governor in 2002.

Over the next four years, he slashed the state's budget, stumbled repeatedly, proposed two tax increases -- and wound up as one of the most popular governors in the commonwealth's history. In November, Virginians chose a successor who campaigned as the second coming of Mark Warner.

As Warner prepares to deliver his final State of the Commonwealth speech tomorrow before leaving office Saturday, his future in politics could well depend on selling his Virginia story to the nation.

On the Virginia Story:

He turned a $6 billion shortfall in the state budget into a billion-dollar surplus, a narrative he used to re-brand Virginia's Democratic Party as the party of fiscal discipline.

Mayors of rural towns applaud him for creating jobs. Teachers say their schools have more money. Governing Magazine cited his efforts in areas including procurement and technology consolidation as proof that Virginia is better managed than any other state.

More children have insurance. Graduation rates are higher. The state's sprawling and still underfunded Department of Transportation now finishes most projects on time and under budget.

Through it all, Warner faced a hostile legislature controlled by Republicans, whose march to power in the 1990s had swept Democrats from government leadership.

On Raising Taxes and Schlitz beer

To get elected, Warner had looked into the camera and said: "Let me set the record straight: I will not raise taxes." But he concluded that the scope of the state's budget mess -- the shortfall had ballooned to $6 billion -- justified breaking the pledge.

For months, he hosted town-hall meetings across the state, becoming Virginia's PowerPoint governor. He compiled binders listing moderate Republicans he thought he could sway, then wined and dined them. Once, he sent a private helicopter to pick up the Senate's leading Republican and whisk him to a dinner at a Williamsburg resort.

Perhaps fittingly, Warner, who made millions in the early days of the cellular telephone industry, was glued to his cell phone, calling key Republican lawmakers to plot strategy five and six times each day and often late into the night.

Those late-night sessions continue even now. Last month, on the day before his final budget speech, Warner invited his finance chief and two of his key allies in the tax fight -- Sen. John H. Chichester (R-Northumberland) and Sen. William C. Wampler Jr. (R-Bristol) -- to the governor's mansion, where the four drank Wild Irish Rose and Schlitz Malt Liquor and ate from a box of Slim Jims until late into the night.

In 2004, the one-on-one efforts paid off -- barely. After a long stalemate, the legislature narrowly approved a plan to raise $1.5 billion more in taxes over the next two years.

On Warner's Gut, Energizer Bunny and Kaine's Victory

Early in 2005, the private polls looked ominous.

Not for Warner, whose popularity was soaring after his victory in the tax fight. But for Democrat Timothy M. Kaine, the lieutenant governor, who was trailing Attorney General Jerry W. Kilgore (R) in the contest for governor.

Warner had to make a decision: Back Kaine heartily and risk political damage if he lost, or play down his support for Kaine early.

He chose the former, for the second time betting against conventional wisdom in Richmond. On the campaign trail, he was more obsessive than Kaine. At parades, he shook more hands and frequently egged Kaine on. In the motorcades, he whipped out his cell phone to demand more information from staffers, while the more mellow -- and less worried -- Kaine grabbed some shut-eye.

It's the Future, Stupid

2006-01-11T07:32:00.000-08:00

Eric Davis made the following post to the Forward Together blog. I thought it was very good especially the Obama piece.

Note he is responding to someone suggesting a Warner-Clark ticket. Re-posting here for him:

Right answer, wrong answer

I second the LOL about the idea that Sen. Kerry would get close to the nomination. No means no. The country has taken a close look at him and enough of them simply didn't like him enough such that they held their noses and voted for He Who Should Be Impeached instead. But the Warner/Clark idea has no legs. Gov. Warner, a red state, pro-gun rights NASCAR junkie who governed as a moderate, will already bring in 80-90% of the people that Clark would appeal to. Clark will, however, make an OUTSTANDING Secretary of Defense in the Warner Administration, and I would think that Gov. Warner should announce him as such once he gets the nomination.
The race in the 2008 primaries is to see whose name will be in front of Barack Obama's on the bumper sticker. For my vote, go to http://www.warnerobama08.com/. The reality is, with Sen. Obama on the ticket we will get a vigorous 100% of the African-American vote (unless of course they put Sec. Rice on the ticket, which the racist wing of their party won't allow), we plug the leak with the Latino vote, not to mention allowing Warner to stay moderate/centrist rather than having to appease the left. Plus, Warner-Obama is upbeat and all about the future. Two living American success stories v. either a too-old war hero from the past whose dad was an Admiral (McCain, but it won't be him) or Allen (a silver spoon Reagan wannabe who might in fact be nuttier than Bush).
Americans are tired of feeling bad about themselves and Warner-Obama lets them feel good about the future. Plus, as an ambassador to this movement from the proud-to-be left - and Jerome knows this- I can tell you there are legions of experienced progressive organizers who would walk on their knees through broken glass for a ticket with Barack Obama on it.

Warner Legacy Articles

2006-01-08T20:45:00.000-08:00

(Hat tip to the Forward Together blog)

Four great articles about Warner's legacy each worth reading the entire text.

"Strong finisher" by Michael Sluss of the The Roanoke Times:

Mark Warner got off to a rocky start in Richmond, but leaves office on a roll with his ties to rural Virginia stronger than ever. Read entire article.

"Notable term for Gov. Warner" By Chelyen Davis of the Free Lance-Star:

Strong finish for a governor who began his administration with a shaky start, under difficult circumstances. Read entire article.

"Mark Warner's rising stock" by staff on The Roanoke Times gives a time-line of Warner's governorship.

Jan. 12: Warner sworn in as 69th governor. He vows to launch "a little revolution" by "changing the way we do business in Richmond." Read entire article.

A land deed Fauquier County VA is actually the first recorded history of the Dennison family passing land from one generation to another (1802) even though my ancestors had been in America since colonial times. I must admit linking to a Fauquier Times-Democrat story gives me a kick.

"Gov. Warner: The man who could be president" by George Rowand and Michael Rowand in the Fauquier Times-Democrat adds a personal touch to the mix of stories.

When Mark Warner was campaigning for governor five years ago, he made a habit of not saying what he would do if he were elected. It probably was the businessman in him -- he always said, "If the people of Virginia hire me for this job ..."
Now, with his time as governor coming to an end, he can look back on a successful term of office. Read entire article.

Feingold - Warner - Clinton - The Political Side

2006-01-08T20:22:00.000-08:00

Back in November I wrote Feingold was destined to become the darling of the Left unless Al Gore entered the race. The political punditry is also seeing this trend. Ronald Brownstein has an LA Times article from the day after Christmas talking about essentially a three-way race between Clinton, Feingold and Warner. Brownstein on Warner:

In the center, this year's winner was outgoing Virginia Gov. Mark R. Warner. As Warner begins traveling the country, he is laying claim to a clear brand: the red state savior. Warner presents himself as the candidate whose message of fiscal discipline and social moderation can win back some of the culturally conservative states where Bush romped twice.

In November, Warner received a powerful boost for that case. His popularity helped Lt. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine capture the Virginia governorship, even though Kaine (unlike Warner) opposed the death penalty. Kaine's strongest argument was that he would continue Warner's direction. And when Kaine won, it burnished Warner's reputation as the Democrat who had cracked the red state code.

"His ability to transfer his own popularity to elect an anti-death-penalty successor speaks volumes about his ability to go beyond the base," said former South Carolina Democratic Party Chairman Dick Harpootlian. Harpootlian was so impressed with Warner at a recent South Carolina speech that he signed up to support the governor if he runs.
On both sides, the nomination is won most often by the candidate with the broadest appeal across the party. So candidates, in defining themselves, must always take care not to create a ceiling on their support (that seems especially a risk for Feingold with his dovish trajectory). Yet in a race with a potential front-runner as formidable as Hillary Rodham Clinton, the initial challenge is building a solid floor to stand on. More than any of Clinton's other potential rivals, Feingold and Warner laid down the first planks in 2005. Read more:

The AP quotes Joe Trippi in an article about Feingold where he mentions Mark Warner as a top rival.

Joe Trippi, who ran Democrat Howard Dean's anti-war presidential candidacy in 2004, said Feingold has helped to separate himself from other potential rivals.

"He and Mark Warner are the only two people who have cut a more stark profile that people are paying attention to - Feingold on the left and Warner in the middle," Trippi said, referring to the Virginia governor. Read more.

The Washington Times reports Warner is returning to New Hampshire to speak at the annual 100 Club dinner. Read more. The Daily Press also reports on Warner's upcoming trip to New Hampshire. Read more.

No Holidays for Warner

2006-01-08T19:45:00.000-08:00

Hope everyone had relaxing holidays. My wife and I ordered out five meals of Indian food from Devon Street (Chicago) on Christmas eve like we were stocking up for a natural disaster. Other than doing minor work for a local congressional candidate and eating Indian food, my holiday mainly consisted of watching TV, reading and just generally relaxing. First Christmas in some time we haven't visited family, so my stress levels are very low.

But WOW, Gov. Warner was busy. I didn't even know where to start to catch up until I saw the Daily Press's article, "Warner working until the last possible minute."

Outgoing Virginia Gov. Mark R. Warner is still keeping busy well into his final days in office.

Set to leave office on Saturday, Warner has ended with a rush, packing significant work into the final weeks of his administration.

Blessed with a fat budget, he has proposed rebuilding two state hospitals, including Eastern State in Williamsburg. Legislative leaders say the plan is something that comes along once in a generation.

He is pushing for a record investment in water quality and wants to spend half a billion dollars to boost research efforts in higher education.

He has ordered a broad review of past criminal cases where DNA testing could play a role. It came after DNA tests showed that Virginia had wrongfully convicted two men of rape, which earned them full pardons. Most recently, he helped broker an agreement to re-test evidence that could prove Virginia sent an innocent man to the electric chair in 1992. See more:

1) Proposing military spending to take care of national guard members. Read more:

RICHMOND, Va. Governor Mark Warner is proposing nearly 38-point-five (m) million dollars for the Department of Military Affairs to increase the work force at Fort Pickett, provide recruitment incentives for the Virginia National Guard and maintain the state's 49 armories.

It would up the department's budget by two-point-eight (m) million dollars to further support the guard and other state agencies.

The largest part of the department's budget -- that's 26-point-five (m) million ollars -- goes to defense preparedness, including operations and maintenance. The remainder is for support like tuition and financial assistance for guard members and
their families.

Warner spokesman Kevin Hall says Warner considers stepping up funding to improve Fort Pickett and other training facilities a top priority.

2) Proposing conservation of Virginia forest areas. Read more:

A move by Gov. Mark Warner to protect roadless acreage in the George Washington and Jefferson National forests could affect 38,649 acres in Rockingham County, according to the National Forest Service.

Warner is asking the federal government for the protection. Warner’s petition comes under a rule, promulgated by the Bush Administration, that repealed the 2001 Roadless Area Conservation Rule in Virginia last May. The rule permits governors to request changes in roadless areas.

3) Announcing the creation of new jobs in Newport News, Virginia. Read more:

Virginia Gov. Mark Warner last week said Wolseley, a distributor of plumbing and heating products, is investing $30 million to build a 220,000-square-foot headquarters in Newport News.

The new location eventually will add more than 400 jobs to the area.

Mr. Warner, a Democrat, also announced that Stihl Inc. will invest $78.4 million to expand its facility in Virginia Beach, creating 150 jobs.

The company makes the world's largest-selling brand of chain saws and a full line of hand-held power tools.

The state competed successfully against Brazil, Germany and Switzerland for the project.

4) Building education infrastruture to help rural areas compete in the global economy. Read more:

MARTINSVILLE, Va. - The Harvest Foundation’s Doug Payne recalled a rather stressful dinner he had with Gov. Mark Warner in September as the two discussed his plans to bring a four-year state university to Martinsville.

Warner said the dinner focused on Payne’s ability to formulate a realistic plan for the college - one that involved partnering with existing institutions, garnered visual support from the state and local governments and had a good chance of surviving the legislature.

“We have made significant progress toward that goal over the last few weeks and months,” Payne said Monday as he thanked Warner for the $4.5 million in state funds the governor included for the New College Institute in his 2006-08 budget proposal.

5) Building government infrastruture to help respond to diasters or terrorism. Read more:

Richmond, Va. (AP) - Governor Mark Warner conducted the first live, public transmission of Virginia's new Statewide Agencies Radio System.

The system - known as STARS - provides Virginia's state level first responders with integrated voice and data communications. Warner says that using the system, Virginia's 21 state agencies will be able to communicate directly with one another.

During an afternoon press conference, Warner demonstrated the radio system by talking to Virginia State Police Trooper Gary Horner, Jr.

In November 2002, Horner was shot seven times at an Interstate 64 rest area in New Kent County. It took him four tries to get in touch with a state police dispatcher in Richmond.

The state entered into a $329 million dollar contract with Motorola for the system in July 2004. STARS is being integrated into the state agencies over a six-year period. It is expected to be fully implemented by the summer of 2008.

Virginia is preparing to compete in the global economy from physical infrastructure, education, good paying jobs while still practicing conservation and investing in government response. But without Warner's leadership on the tax system overhaul early in his governorship, his latest budget would not be possible.

Sexual Orientation in the Workplace

2005-12-19T14:54:00.000-08:00

Governor Mark R. Warner is trying to amend the equal opportunity policy of the Commonwealth to prohibit workplace discrimination based on sexual orientation. I'm sure there will be the usual criticism that here is another politician "changing course" to pander to his base. Well, anticipating this type of unfair criticism, Eddie over at the Draft Mark Warner blog does a good job of listing Warner’s historical efforts to support his GLBT constituents. Read Eddie's blog entry.

Updated:

Conaway Haskins on the blog Think South gives greater detail into how Warner is trying to accomplish inserting this provision into state law and it is brilliant! Essentially he is turning the tables on the GOP, putting them over a barrel and making them feel the pain for being divisive.

There are too many politicians in Democratic safe seats who blow hot air on social issues, but never are able to actually accomplish anything tangible. They always have "the other" party to blame for their failure. I find it refreshing that Warner instead of just blowing hot air on gay rights (not followed by results) he found a way to insert a crack in the wall of Virginia social conservatives. Results not decibel level should matter...

Conaway Haskins ends with the following observation and lets hope it is true:

If the provision holds, it could signal a shift in the politics of gay rights in Virginia, a cradle of Christian conservatism and home to giants of the Right, Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson.

Larry Sabato to Host own Show on MSNBC?

2005-12-19T14:37:00.000-08:00

Well if Howard Fineman's Newsweek article is right, MSNBC might just want to offer the Virginia professor his own show. Fineman pens an article titled "The Virginians" starring none other than Gov. Mark Warner and Sen. George Allen. In a theme that we are sure to hear in 2008 many times, the possibility of an intra-commonwealth rivalry between the Virginia titans has political pundits licking their chops.

As young men in law school in the 1970s, neither Mark Warner nor George Allen set the legal world on fire. At Harvard, Warner founded a group called the Somerville Bar Review—that's "bar" as in drinking studies, not professional ones. "I was the only guy I knew who didn't get law-firm offers after summer internships," he says.
At the University of Virginia, Allen lived in a cabin on the mountaintop next to Thomas Jefferson's Monticello. But the scenery did more to inspire a passion for deer hunting than textbook reading; his mud-spattered truck was a rare sight in the law-school parking lot. "I probably didn't fit in real well," he says. See more:

National Journal Insiders Poll

2005-12-19T13:46:00.000-08:00

National Journal released its Presidential insider poll on Saturday. Mark Warner jumped one spot to slide into a fairly comfortable number two position behind Hillary. While insiders still think Hillary is the candidate to beat, Warner has become the viable alternative. John Edwards continues his fall to the number three position, while John Kerry drops three more positions to number eight.

Candidate / Points / 1st Place Votes
1.Hillary Clinton / 440 / 76
2.Mark Warner / 283 / 10
3.John Edwards / 170 / 5
4.Evan Bayh / 105 / 3
5.Tom Vilsack / 100 / 1
6.Joe Biden / 79 / 1
7.Bill Richardson / 72 / 1
8.John Kerry / 69 / 0
9.Al Gore / 46 / 1
10.Wesley Clark / 34 / 0

The Insiders Poll listed Sen. George Allen of Virginia in the number one spot for Republican Presidential favorite in 2008. If you didn't see it last week, Warner Watch linked to a Rasmussen poll showing Warner beating Allen 49% to 44% for President among the voters of the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Here is National Journal's commentary about Gov. Warner:

He has some personal wealth, and has received a strong response from the Virginia election this year. He is the Southern alternative, as well as the strongest moderate alternative. Warner has some outsider potential and a good story from the last Virginia election, but clinching the nomination is tougher when not occupying an office - harder to break through and make news.

Can a right-of-center, pro-business Democrat get the Democratic nomination? In any event; already on the short list for VP.

If Warner's recent trip to New Hampshire is any indication, he has a chance. But if he is to beat Hillary, he will need to keep exciting people while also proving he can win in the general election and proving Hillary can't. Warner has to quietly build an organization and educate himself to the land mines of a national run. My fear is that the early spate of good press will give Warner the impression this is a merry-go-round, when it really is a wild roller-coaster ride.

I do like the fact they pointed out Warner's outsider potential. He has a strong case to be the outside Washington candidate for President. A governor/ businessman running against the mess in Washington is always a good story. Why? His competition is the Democratic Senate Club of Clinton, Kerry, Edwards, Bayh, Biden, Feingold, and maybe even former Sen. Gore.

But I still don't think some of the insiders really get Warner. In the Virginia governor, they just see another DLC Democrat who is centrist for the sake of being moderate, but has electability outside Democratic strongholds. But this view misses the direction Warner is headed in entirely. His centrism is not the mealy-mouthed centrism of someone in the middle because they lack conviction. He simply can't be defined by the political left, right or center if he is going to be about grabbing the American peoples attention with powerful ideas and an expansive vision for America's future.

The real issues we face are no longer right vs. left or conservative vs. liberal. They’re about past vs. future. Our challenge, as Democrats, is to reclaim our role as the party of the future. - Mark Warner

Left Coaster Attacks Warner - Washington Rolling in His Grave

2005-12-16T13:50:00.000-08:00

Gov. Warner's recent (sliced) quote in Times Community paper (Northern VA) are now the subject of controversy by a liberal blogger. The incomplete quote in contention:

“Where I disagree with the president is not any action he took, but in an action he has not taken: His need to make an appeal to all Americans to stand up and be great,” Warner said. “After 9/11, after the war, after Katrina ... We know we have enormous challenges, and we know the problems will not be solved by a Democratic or Republican solution but by Americans stepping up and rolling up their sleeves.”

The Left Coaster angrily responds:

But if you are going to give Bush a pass in an attempt to move beyond the divisiveness and poor judgment of the last five years, then you are not going to get past the primaries.

You’re not running to be a cheerleader here governor, you’re running to show voters why the Democrats need to be returned to the White House and what they would differently to address the country’s challenges. And Stuart Smalley-platitudes like this don’t point out differences, or tell voters why they should vote Democratic in 2008. Ignoring the Bush years is not a recipe for change.

Okay, I have two problems with this blog.

1) I understand that the Left Coaster probably has a chip on his shoulder since Warner is precieved as a "centrist," but it really burns me his how he uses an incomplete quotation from Warner's speech to make the attack.

If he had bothered to do any research before blogging, he would have known exactly the full context of Warner's comments. Matter-of-fact in covering the same part of the stump speech, the Washington Post leads with the title of "Warner Faults Bush for 'Missed Opportunity.'"

Virginia Gov. Mark R. Warner (D) criticized President Bush yesterday for missing an opportunity after the 2001 terrorist attacks to rally Americans around solving some of the nation's intractable problems.

After a speech to journalists at the National Press Club in downtown Washington, Warner said that the country yearned to shed partisan differences after the attacks and come together toward a common purpose.

Virginia Gov. Mark R. Warner said that "too often, the only people . . . asked for sacrifice" have been military and National Guard members and families. Warner said Bush could have gathered support for such goals as cutting the federal deficit, increasing energy independence and aiding a struggling educational system.

"I wish and pray that it would have happened," Warner said. "Instead, what we got was that folks like me got a tax break. Most Americans are told to go about their daily lives. And, too often, the only people that were asked for sacrifice were the members and families of our active duty, Guard and Reserve."

He said Democrats across the country have "a lot of frustration" with Bush. But he said his "biggest concern with the president is not any particular policy issue. It is really that chance, I think, of missed opportunity." Entire article:

In the stump speeches I have heard, Warner takes on the Bush Administration on various policy issues. Yes, while his speech is full of policy differences with the Bush Administration, but his main attack (biggest concern) is personally directed at Bush for not calling the American people to be great. Warner is saying Bush lacks leadership as reflected by his responses to 9-11 and Katrina. Hey, Warner should know. You don't build a company like Nextel from the ground up without being able to lead and motivate people. Warner is speaking from his heart about the "single characteristic" he values most in President.

2) The other criticism is less bothersome than just blatantly misrepresenting Warner’s remarks. I sense that Warner was not "angry" enough with the President to suit the Left Coaster.

Sen. Barack Obama recently took issue with the “angry left” ascertain that Democrats need to get meaner and madder to beat the Republicans. Barack’s response is a must read for all Democrats.

And lastly, I defer to George Washington’s Farewell Address and his warning to our country about the negative effects of partisan spirit.

Let me now take a more comprehensive view, and warn you in the most solemn manner against the baneful effects of the spirit of party generally.

This spirit, unfortunately, is inseparable from our nature, having its root in the strongest passions of the human mind. It exists under different shapes in all governments, more or less stifled, controlled, or repressed; but in those of the popular form it is seen in its greatest rankness and is truly their worst enemy....

It serves always to distract the public councils and enfeeble the public administration. It agitates the community with ill-founded jealousies and false alarms; kindles the animosity of one part against another; foments occasionally riot and insurrection…

But in those of the popular character, in governments purely elective, it is a spirit not to be encouraged. From their natural tendency it is certain there will always be enough of that spirit for every salutary purpose; and there being constant danger of excess, the effort ought to be by force of public opinion to mitigate and assuage it. A fire not to be quenched, it demands a uniform vigilance to prevent its bursting into a flame, lest, instead of warming, it should consume.

If the Left Coaster wants to call Warner naive for agreeing with the greatest Virginian, then so be it. I, for one, applaud him for trying to move Americans beyond the “baneful effects.”

Biblical Bumper Stickers for 2008

2005-12-16T12:43:00.000-08:00

When I saw Gov. Warner in Chicago, he told a humorous story about a bumper sticker the campaign printed for his Senate campaign against Sen. John Warner. The bumper sticker simply read:

Mark, Not John

Mark and a staffer were driving around Danville, Virginia. Another car stopped beside the Senate candidate at a red light, motioned to roll down the window and asked, “Mark, not John? What is that some sort of biblical reference?”

At Warner Watch, I am all about having empathy. You know what, I feel bad that other Presidential 2008 candidates don’t have as great a bumper sticker story to tell. So I have done some research, and pulled out some potential “bumper stickers” for the other candidates to use. Here goes:

Thy Holy Hill – (Psalm 43)

John from Heaven or from Men? – (Mark Chapter 11)

The Lord has Bidden – (Joshua Chapter 8)

Other Warner News

2005-12-16T09:43:00.000-08:00

The New Hampshire Union Leader reports Virginia Governor Mark Warner will be the speaker at the state party’s biggest annual event. The “100 Club” dinner will be held on February 10th. See link:

This early in the cycle, presidential polls are based largely on name recognition and not what candidate the big money or serious organizers are rallying behind. However, they are however a good gauge for finding out whether lesser-known candidates are starting to break through in name recognition.

A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll for the Democratic nomination shows:
Clinton - 43%
Kerry - 14%
Edwards - 14%
Biden - 8%
Warner - 3%
Richardson - 3%
Bayh - 1%
Vilsack - 1%

Because Warner is moving up the name recognition polls ever so slowly, I am hoping my early fears that he was peaking too early misplaced.

Still I also found this poll interesting in that Sen. Russ Feingold did not even register. He is my bet to be the darling of the left.

The Only Morally Acceptable Course

2005-12-16T09:19:00.000-08:00

After recent exonerations from DNA testing in decades old convictions, Gov. Warner ordered a sweeping review of thousands of cases to determine if new DNA evidence would produce more wrongly convicted Virginians. The Washington Post has more on this story.

RICHMOND, Dec. 14 -- Newly tested DNA from rapes committed more than 20 years ago has exonerated two Virginians who had each spent more than a decade behind bars, reigniting a national debate about post-conviction testing of biological evidence.

Gov. Mark R. Warner (D) announced the test results Wednesday. One of the defendants served 20 years in prison for a rape in Alexandria that the new testing shows he did not commit. The other man was released in 1992 after serving about 11 years for an assault in Norfolk. The governor did not reveal the names of the exonerated men because they had requested privacy. Warner said the discovery of two innocent men among the 31 newly examined cases compels an even more sweeping review. He ordered that 660 boxes containing thousands of files from 1973 through 1988 be examined for cases that can be retested using the latest DNA technology. There is no estimate on how long that would take or how much it would cost.

"I believe a look back at these retained case files is the only morally acceptable course, and what truth they can bring only bolsters confidence in our system," Warner said in a statement. Warner's order stems from the accidental discovery in 2001 of a treasure trove of evidence, including some aging biological samples, stapled to the yellowing case files of a former analyst in Virginia's state-run forensics lab. It is not clear why the analyst, who is dead, had meticulously preserved the evidence in the days before DNA tests existed.

Prosecutors in Alexandria and Norfolk have requested that the governor issue complete pardons in both cases. Read more:

DemIowa Blogger? Outreach?

2005-12-14T09:39:00.000-08:00

A blogger at Demiowa.blogspot.com (presumably from Iowa) is asking if Iowans want to meet Gov. Warner.

Interested in meeting Gov. WarnerOr better yet, interested in possibly hosting Gov. Warner? He is planning on making a foray into Iowa in Jan/Feb and is looking for possible hosts. My understanding is the only requirements is it be open to the public and this time of year be able to host 20-30 people if lucky. (The closer to caucus the bigger the expected turn out.) If you, or anyone you know, might be interested just leave an email address or other contact information and I will forward it on.

I saw this post yesterday, but the site looked a little sketchy becuase there are only three months of sporatic posts.

The Hotline seems to think it is for real.

Not a surprise: VA Gov. Mark Warner is set to make his first stop in Iowa in either Jan. or Feb, and his Forward Together PAC is scouting out possibilities. With superblogger Jerome Armstrong on staff, natch, they're looking to bloggers for assistance.

Hmmm... I am very skeptical that this is an systematic attempt by the Warner PAC to reach out to Iowa through a concerted effort focused on Iowa bloggers. This is much to do about nothing.

As an Iowa caucus veteran, bypassing usual rounds of the "make-or-break" caucus organizers to meet first with bloggers in the state would be suicidal. In Iowa there are three factors to winning, organization, organization and organization. It is not a primary, where people walk into a voting booth anonymously and leave within fifteen minutes. Iowa caucus goers have to venture forth into the miserable cold, and endure two to three hours of speeches and haggling before they are allowed to leave. Only local political organizers have the ability to deliver enough people to make the difference from precinct to precinct, and they know it. They expect a certain amount of personal attention from the candidate, and certainly expect the proper protocol that when the candidate first comes into town, they are invited to host/attend.

I was one of the Whouley's 500 and witness to the planned massacre Kerry laid for Dean in the last two weeks of election in 2004. No other candidate was even close to Kerry in organization.

With that said about staying away from the unique animal that is Iowa (and I assume NH too), I think it would be great for Warner to start doing a "tour" of the liberal blogosphere and meeting with grassroots groups. He should go hit the big urban areas (NY, LA, Chicago, etc) to help him start building an Internet base. These areas will return Warner's money ten-fold down the stretch and help build his name recognition.

Exchange with Blue Dog

2005-12-13T13:55:00.000-08:00

Below is part of an exchange I am having with Blue Dog over at his site. He poses the following questions.

Steven Sisson said... Daniel, where does VA Governor Mark Warner rate as far as name recognition with other national Democrats in the state of Illinois? And has our Governor scheduled an appearance in the Mid-Eastern region with the Democratic establishment?

Other than Governor Warner's popularity with pro-choice VA Democrats, what has Warner legislated or accomplished during his tenure as Governor to earn him the title of a "social moderate" concerning his appeal in suburban areas nationwide?

Is Mark Warner considered a fiscal conservative, or a 'tax & spend' liberal Democrat?
~ the blue dog

Later this week, the Blue's Blogisphere will be adding the Warner Watch blog.

My response as follows:

Daniel Dennison said... I saw him in downtown Chicago in a small group luncheon about two weeks before the Kaine victory. Since then he has gained significant name recognition... I have offered to host young professional event for him here, and have no doubt I can pack the place (due to his popularity).

To your question "Is Mark Warner considered a fiscal conservative, or a 'tax & spend' liberal Democrat?" I think both Warner and his opponents have the opportunity to define him as either. Right now within the Democratic community, he is viewed as a fiscal conservative, and known to have cut spending in Virginia, but roundly cheered for tax reform.

To your question of "social moderate," the standard is different than that of a social conservative or liberal. Those are both terms defined by "action" while social moderation is defined by being savvy enough to nagivate around the landmines of the culture "wars."

Warner is Just Instinctively likeable

2005-12-12T21:50:00.000-08:00

There are some themes that I am continuing to hear about Warner in the blogosphere. People just love his self-effacing humor and plain speaking manner. He has a genuineness not evident in most politicians. Even Grouchy over at Liberaltopia seems dangerously temped to fall "in love."

The Tattlesnake could go on, but what’s the point; yes, most politicians are lily-livered scoundrels — it seems to accompany the territory — and they are notorious, artful and ardent prevaricators, compared to the rest of the population, who only lie a little occasionally to get by.

Taking all this into account, Tattlesnake was impressed yesterday listening to a speech by outgoing Virginia Gov. Mark Warner on C-Span.

He exudes a quiet charisma that is a meld of RFK and Jimmy Stewart’s Jefferson Smith; he has an array of funny self-deprecating anecdotes, and the blue-collar offering that he is the first to graduate from college in his family, a claim one hopes is more accurate than Joe Biden’s 1988 campaign trail fraud with the same rose-from-the-working-class ornament that Biden stole from a successful British Labour Party politician. Warner also jokes about the mistakes he made in business before striking gold with Nextel, a refreshing change from the standard neo-Republican denial of all human error, past, present or future.

Encouraging as well is that he can speak plain English, unlike the finely-diced phrases of the Gore of 2000, or the verbal tossed salad of George W. Bush; and he can explain such things as the successes of his education program in a few concise paragraphs, mercifully free of the ponderous and soporific Washingtonese of John Kerry. In a debate with Hillary, Warner would be the honest Common Man to Sen. Clinton’s cunning and calculating pol.

As he pointed out in his C-Span speech to a South Carolina Democratic group, when he was elected governor of Virginia, the state was staggering under billions of dollars in GOP debt. In four years, he managed to balance the budget through surgical cuts, while paying bonuses to teachers, improving the educational system, and bringing good-paying jobs to rural areas of the state. He even made some friends among Virginia Republicans along the way. All of these talents will be needed in the next president, and no other Dem currently in the running (officially or not) possesses them, although New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson would be a close second to Warner in these qualities, but Richardson doesn’t have the photogenic appeal.

A close female friend who watched Warner’s speech mentioned his lanky handsomeness and energizing straightforwardness, with just enough friendly salesmanship to win an election without the off-putting hard sell; she said she would find it very easy to vote for him for president. He’s also smart enough to do what Howard Dean was ridiculed for suggesting in 2004; he took his gubernatorial campaign right into the heart of Red State country in southern Virginia, advertised at NASCAR rallies, and spoke to rural audiences, but not down to them, and they listened. He didn’t concede any voting bloc to the Republicans and he won. In a national campaign, vital tier GOP states like Ohio, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Missouri and his home state of Virginia would fall easily to Warner’s mid-southern charm; even Deep South states might not drop automatically into the R column, especially in the wake of Republican bungling of post-hurricane disaster relief. And, like Bill Clinton, northern, midwestern and coastal states would not be put off by his hint-of-Dixie likeability, fused as it is to a can-do progressive sensibility and a track record of competent accomplishment.

If Tattlesnake were a Republican, he’d be shaking in his tasseled loafers over a Dem ‘Dream Team’ of Warner for President and Wes Clark for Veep. Hillary may worry the GOP; Warner and Clark would be their cold screaming nightmare.

Qualifier: Of course, Warner may turn out to be the emptiest suit in presidential history, but he sure as hell looks promising, and electable, at the moment.

Warner in the Blogosphere & Media

2005-12-12T16:34:00.000-08:00

There is rather lengthy and "spicy" debate going on over at the Drudge Retort about Mark Warner. Join in the fun here.

In case you missed it, Daily Kos calls Warner the candidate to watch. Yup, I think we got it covered.

I don't see it, but the guy over at Oval Office 08 in the post seems to think Evan Bayh and Mark Warner are interchangable candidates for President. Ick, Bayh excites me as much as helping my wife (a teacher) grade her school papers.

The Penndit runs down Warner news articles over the last couple weeks. While most have already been featured on this blog or in the sidebar roll of articles, he has brief descriptions to help you sort through what you want to see.

The RCP blog has a comprehensive entry on Vilsack, Edwards and Warner's Florida visit. Best detail I have seen yet. St. Petersburgh Times with more here.

Time Magazine Mike Allen made the following statement on Meet the Press yesterday:

Democrats are trying to find someone to respond to the State of the Union address. A lot of people obviously wanted Congressman Murtha. Democrats have decided that he can't because he doesn't speak to everyone. So now I would look for a new face, like Governor-elect Tim Kaine of Virginia to give that response.

Raising Kaine has a good suggestion if not Kaine... How about Warner? Oh, I can just see the sleepless nights for about six Senators named Clinton, Kerry, Bayh, Biden, Feingold and Edwards. How dare the DNC let this governor with no Washington experience speak for Democrats?

Capital Sunday 7 interviewed Gov. Warner. Video here.

Behold the NY Times Awakens

2005-12-12T16:05:00.000-08:00

Maybe the New York Times has avoided covering Warner's meteoric rise in the last three weeks due to deference for the "hometown" gal Hillary, maybe not but for whatever reason the Warner coverage drought has ended... Published today, an article reviewed Warner's last few weeks while containing enough prefunctory Hillary ass-kissing presumably to let the Big Apple know their Senator was still the "top dog" in the race.

"Clearly, Hillary Clinton is the first among equals," said Don Fowler of South Carolina, a former Democratic National Committee chairman. "But clearly, Warner is now among the people you have to take seriously."

"I don't think 'front-runner' is too strong a word in describing her," said Mr. Fowler, the former Democratic chairman, referring to polls showing that Mrs. Clinton enjoys greater support among Democrats than anyone else mentioned as a possible presidential contender in the party.

The article did point out the strength Warner has: he isn't Hillary, and he has no baggage.

Still, some strategists maintain that Governor Warner may benefit from the fact that he is an unknown quantity. It provides him with the opportunity to fill in the blanks, these strategists say, as he introduces himself to party regulars, whereas Mrs. Clinton is already considered a polarizing figure.

As Mr. Fowler put it, Mr. Warner has "no known negatives" at this point. "He has an opportunity to write on a clean slate," Mr. Fowler said. Read the entire article:

Warner's Easy Popularity

2005-12-11T20:37:00.000-08:00

Warner has come from nowhere in a matter of weeks to one of the frontrunners. When this blog started, Warner was a statistical footnote on presidential polls.

I don't believe most Democrats who are hearing about Warner know very much about him at all. What I do believe Warner's rise clearly shows is that the Democratic base is not going to be told, "Hillary is your nominee." I think we are in a pretty rebellious mood right now both lefties and centrists.

The truth is Feingold / Edwards / Gore will probably be the next "Presidential flavor-of-the-month" after the left finds a candidate to love. But the result is Warner continues to solidified himself as the centrist candidate making it very hard for Vilsack, Bayh and Clark to emerge. Plus Warner is expanding his base by locking down the South in his camp (see recent visits to FL and SC).

If the press gets a tantilizing three way, the other candidates are probably out in the cold.

Eleanor Clift Newsweek Blog: Clinton vs. Warner

2005-12-11T19:56:00.000-08:00

I blogged a couple of weeks ago that I was increasing becoming uncomfortable that Warner has pushed to the forefront of the pack too early and relatively effortlessly. No doubt, he is now considered a front-runner. But I'll be honest, I don't like the Hillary-Warner match-ups this early. First, I am not convinced Hillary is even going to run. She might be using the speculation to build up a huge Senate war chest to help her push into Senate leadership. Second, the frontrunner always has a sore tail by the time the first caucus comes around. It would be better if Hillary or even the liberal candidate Feingold / Gore were front-runners until the primary season rolls around. Then Democratic voters usually leave their "flirtations" for someone electable like Warner.

But we have to have the horserace, what else would I blog about? In the new, but rapidly growing genre of Clinton vs. Warner writers, please let me introduce Eleanor Clift. In her Newsweek web only content, she pretty much trashes Hillary. Please Eleanor enough! We need Hillary around for another year and half...

It’s not just the left-right thing that could slow Hillary’s march to the nomination. It’s the transparency of what she’s doing that has even her biggest fans worried. It doesn’t look authentic. If primary voters conclude they need a Red State friendly candidate, Virginia Gov. Mark Warner is the real thing. Why settle for Red State-lite Hillary? Warner is already where he needs to be on the right, and he’s inching to the left, an easier task all around.

If there’s a formula for electing a Democrat president, Warner is the latest iteration. Like Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, he’s a son of the South, although by way of Indiana, Illinois and Connecticut. Warner was not born in Virginia, but his cultural adaptation has been flawless. It must drive Hillary bats to watch Warner glide seamlessly left while her lurches to the right are cast as opportunism.

His challenge is to demonstrate expertise in national security, which he doesn’t have. Democrats want to win, and they’ll abandon Hillary in a New York minute if they think there’s a new more competitive model coming on line. See entire article:

Warner's Florida Trip Roundup

2005-12-11T19:19:00.000-08:00

Jerome Armstrong has a blog up on the Forward Together PAC site about Warner's trip to Florida.

Hotline's Marc Ambinder was at the event. His follow up blog entry is the best condensation that I have ever seen of a political stump speech. Read his blog entry The Warner Stump.

Ambinder also throws in these observations.

Closing thoughts: "if you think the changes of the last 10 years economically, culturally or technology have been significant, you haven't seen anything like the change that's going to come during the next 10 years."
Reaction from journalists/Dem strategists: for a guy two years away from a presidential bid, he has a darn good message
Audience reaction: the only featured meal speaker to get a standing ovation upon introduction. And during the speech.

Warner in the Blogosphere

2005-12-10T04:18:00.000-08:00

On Vintage blog the "Case Against Hillary" and essentially the case for Warner.

Warner is a Democrat with pride and power. Warner is a Democrat who can win, should win, and very well could win, the presidency in 2008. Warner has the appeal of being a successful moderate liberal in a conservative state. He has “real guy” appeal and a sense of humor. This country needs a president who represents his party’s true values, rather than runs from them, and who connects with America’s majority--the middle class. Mark Warner is that guy; Hillary Clinton is not even close.

Warner's in the Money from the Last Polka blogspot...

There is a lot of buzz about this guy - my general feeling is he is for real. I've noted before how I feel about a Warner campaign. He's got everything the Democrats have been lacking in the last 2 elections. Everywhere he's gone since his Lt. Gov. got elected to be his successor, Warner has been received very well. Democrats and activists in important primary states are getting excited about this guy. Again, I say...Watch out Hillary (and any other ambitious Dems).

The Next Prez has the buzz on Presidential rankings.

1. Hillary Clinton (steady) -- The New York senator remains the clear front runner for the Democratic nomination by a wide margin in national and state-specific polls, but has generated little enthusiasm on the Internet so far. 2. Mark Warner (rising) -- The soon-to-be former Virginia governor is barely starting to register in Democratic preference polls nationally, but blockbuster fundraising events in Virginia and South Carolina show that he will be a serious contender by 2008.

Although I was not aware Warner held a fundraiser in South Carolina. He just attended a Democratic dinner there.

Warner - Zogby and Rasmussen

2005-12-09T20:14:00.000-08:00

A friend of mine, who is regularly polled by Zogby, got another request yesterday. About 1/3 of the survey was on Presidential candidates. Only five (potential) candidates were included in the Republican versus Democratic head to heads. Included were three Democrats Hillary, Kerry, Warner, and two Republicans Rice, McCain. There were also several biographical questions on Warner to find out what level of name recognition and exactly how much people knew about him.

If the Zogby poll is giving candidate Warner so much attention this early, sounds like he is going to be considered top tier for the presidential hunt. Hope this poll will be made public...

Released today - Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports surveyed Virginia voters to find out who they would prefer in a head-to-head match-up between their Senator and Governor for the President in 2008. Just in case you were wondering Virginia was won by Bush by 9% in 2004. The state has 13 electoral votes, but for Democrats this would represent a 26% swing. Drum roll please...

Survey of 500 Likely Voters
December 7, 2005
Election 2008

Virginia President
George Allen (R) 44%
Mark Warner (D) 49%
Other 8%
RasmussenReports.com

December 9, 2005--Virginia Senator George Allen (R) and outgoing Governor Mark Warner (D) are both mentioned as serious contenders for their party's Presidential nomination. If both capture their party nominations, Warner holds a slight edge in the race for home state bragging rights and Virginia's Electoral Votes.

The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in Virginia shows Warner the favorite for 49% of the state's Likely Voters while Allen is the choice of 44%. Warner leads by 12 among women while Allen has a two-point edge among male voters.

Allen is viewed favorably by 67% of the state's voters. For Warner, the figure is 71%. Forty-one percent (41%) of Virginia voters believe Warner should run for the White House. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about Allen. Read text:

South Carolina Visit - Smashing Success

2005-12-08T06:27:00.000-08:00

Warner visited South Carolina as the keynote speaker of state Democratic Party's Governors Appreciation Dinner.

South Carolina Democratic Party Chairman Joe Erwin was pleased Warner was attending the dinner. "Mark Warner is quickly becoming a rock star on the national level and I can't think of a better keynote speaker," Erwin said.

And the results are in, Homerun! South Carolina's Post and Courier reporting:

"You are going to be one heck of a president," said former Gov. Jim Hodges, who lost his re-election bid to Republican Mark Sanford in 2002.
"I believe like the rest of you that we have a real winner here tonight," added former Democratic Gov. and U.S. Sen. Fritz Hollings.
Dick Harpootlian, a former state party chairman and vocal Warner supporter, took one step further: "I think the people in this room heard the next president of the United States. He was inspiring."
This led political pundit Tom Schaller, who was on hand for the event, to one conclusion: "He just won the South Carolina primary." Schaller, a professor at the University of Maryland-Baltimore College, said, "He practically got the endorsements of almost every speaker on stage this early." Read more:

Warner's Last Virginia Budget

2005-12-08T05:47:00.000-08:00

As a business consultant managing international projects, I love it that Warner gets the new knowledge economy and the importance of education and nationalized R&D. Right now I am sitting in Costa Rica working on a project, and find my colleagues to be highly educated, enthusiastic and will work for a heck of a lot less than the American worker. Costa Rica's government is putting a lot of resources into making sure their people are well equipped to compete globally. And it is working... And they are not alone. India and China are investing heavily in their people.

We are essentially living on the gains of America's post-WWII industrial dominance and massive government investment in infrastructure and military. Remember the Sputnik kids, Manhattan project, even the Internet... Ah, but today's Darwinist America, our citizens can rest "easy" knowing they are left to fend for themselves, but at least the "big bad" government isn't mucking up the market. Hey after all, if the government fails to educate its people to be able to compete in a global market, we'll just recruit educated classes of immigrants to come over and fill the void. Heck it is cheaper since the government doesn't have to make an investment that way, right?

Until Thomas L. Friedman's latest book I was never a fan, but his recent work The World Is Flat is truly enlightened work. The last time I heard Warner speak he quoted Friedman liberally. Granted it would be hard for anyone who is an international businessman to not come to the same conclusion as Friedman on his own accord. If you haven't read it, pick it up for your holiday vacation reading. NY Times article here if you want to read more. From his book:

When I compare our high schools to what I see when I'm traveling abroad, I am terrified for our work force of tomorrow. In math and science, our fourth graders are among the top students in the world. By eighth grade, they're in the middle of the pack. By 12th grade, U.S. students are scoring near the bottom of all industrialized nations... The percentage of a population with a college degree is important, but so are sheer numbers. In 2001, India graduated almost a million more students from college than the United States did. China graduates twice as many students with bachelor's degrees as the U.S., and they have six times as many graduates majoring in engineering. In the international competition to have the biggest and best supply of knowledge workers, America is falling behind.

Okay enough of my tangent... Here are two articles on Warner's new Virginia budget.

Washington Business Journal covers Gov. Warner announced $255m for higher-education facilities that focus on medical research.

According to a statement released by Warner's office, state universities are committing up to $299 million to match the governor's proposed allocation. This amounts to an investment of more than $500 million to research and treat diseases, develop new technologies and build state-of-the-art facilities that will help attract experts to Virginia.

"This is a historic investment in Virginia's future," Warner says. "Our state dollars will leverage federal and private funds to help attract the best and the brightest scientists and students to our universities.

This funding will further our advances in biomedical research and help lead to potential breakthroughs in treating cancer, Parkinson's, Alzheimer's and other serious diseases." Read More.

The Washington Post has in an article titled "Warner Seeks $255 Million for Science." I guess in the era of the Bush administration this must actually be big news in Washington. lol

The governor said the new spending is crucial because Virginia lags behind nearby states in research and development spending at its colleges and universities. Both the University of North Carolina and the University of Maryland separately do more research than several Virginia institutions combined, Warner said, and the commonwealth must be able to match its neighbors.
"This is putting a very significant marker down in terms of the long-term economic future of Virginia," Warner (D) said before several hundred college administrators, students and state lawmakers at the Virginia BioTechnology Research Park in Richmond. "What better place to make an investment than in research and development based around our colleges and universities across the commonwealth? There we find tomorrow's products and tomorrow's cures."
The initiative includes money for a new bioscience facility at George Mason University as well as funding for cancer biology research there. It also calls for creating or enhancing several programs at the University of Virginia, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and Virginia Commonwealth University.

And from the Hampton Roads Daily Press and announcement on mental health services.

RICHMOND -- Gov. Mark R. Warner today proposed rebuilding two state mental hospitals, including Eastern State in Williamsburg, as part of a historic $460 million investment aimed at shoring up the safety net for Virginia's most vulnerable citizens.

At a packed press conference, Warner said the time had come to transform the state's outdated, inefficient hospitals that have served for generations, and construct state-of-the-art care centers.

At the same time, the state should begin caring for more people in the community, closer to their homes. The plan calls for $290 million to rebuild Eastern State, Western State Hospital in Staunton, and three training centers. It also involves spending almost $170 million on community-based services, such as group homes. Read more.

Fun Horserace Calculations

2005-12-07T15:12:00.000-08:00

The blogger over at HorseRace08 came up with a system to rate the performance of the Presidential hopefuls. The calculation is done by assigning a percentage to each of the "buzz" factors that can be quantified for a candidate, and then assigned a weighted percentage. You could quibble with the percentages assigned, but I think it is an interesting way to look at the races.

35%-Betting odds from Trade Sports
25%-PAC cash in the bank
20%-Number of blogs referencing the candidate according to Technorati
15%-PAC money raised
5%-thenextprez.blogspot.com weekly human poll

1. Hillary Rodham-Clinton (0.67)
2. Evan Bayh (0.46)
3. John Kerry (0.41)
4. Mark Warner (0.35)
5. John Edwards (0.22)
6. Tom Vilsack (0.19)
7. Bill Richardson (.018)
8. Joe Corzine (0.14)
9. Russ Feingold (0.12)
10. Wesley Clark (0.11)

Read the complete blog entry here.

The only major flaw I see is that the leadership PAC fundraising is weighted so high. Maybe someone knows for sure, but I think Senators can transfer their campaign war-chest into a Presidential fund, because both are federal. If I recall correctly, Kerry did this 2004. The reality is a Senator like Hillary/Biden/Kerry/Bayh/Feingold/Edwards would be better off raising money for their Senate campaign and just rolling it into their Presidential funds. This certainly is Hillary's strategy right now and seems to be better than putting money into a PAC with all the restrictions. Please someone correct me if I have it wrong about being able to transfer the funds.

Back to the Horserace, Evan Bayh came out relatively high because he had raised over $1.7 million year to date in his leadership PAC. After last night's $2.5 million fundraiser, I assume Warner would pass Bayh in the number two spot (Since Warner had not raised money for his PAC before the calculation, 25% of his previous score was zero).

Updated from Horserace08:

The $2.5m leadership PAC would propel Warner into a first place tie with Hillary at .61 percent. See more.

Warner's PAC Pulls in $2.5 Million Last Night

2005-12-07T10:42:00.000-08:00

Articles are starting to break about Warner's first big fundraiser. I'll keep a running tally on this blog entry. The result was BIG! Warner hauled in $2.5 million in one night in Northern Virginia. Between the Kaine victory and his first fundraising haul, I think Warner has moved up from a long shot to a top tier candidate. Handicapping the race now, I would call it Hillay, followed by Edwards, Feingold and Warner.

MCLEAN -- The budding presidential ambitions of Gov. Mark R. Warner were nourished last night with the commodity all national political aspirants need -- a large dose of cash. Warner's new political-action committee, called Forward Together, collected more than $2.5 million during its first fundraiser, setting a record for Virginia politics.
"I have never seen this kind of enthusiasm for a potential presidential candidate," said former Lt. Gov. Donald S. Beyer Jr., the committee's treasurer. "This is the kind of intensity we saw only after John Kerry got the nomination in 2004."
The money will help pay for Warner's travel and political staff as the soon-to-be ex-governor showcases himself around the country before his presumed presidential bid. It will also finance like-minded candidates around the country, giving Warner a base of support for his presumed run. Read More:

From the Hampton Roads Daily Press, there is a slightly different take with the focus on Warner's credentials.

"There's so many people who see Mark as the single most legitimate alternative to Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination," said Donald Beyer Jr., a former lieutenant governor who is serving as finance chairman for Warner's political action committee.
Clinton, who has captured the hearts of her party's liberal base, is widely touted as a formidable presidential contender. Warner supporters are betting that Clinton would be too easily tagged as a liberal - a label that could dash the party's hopes of recapturing the White House.
"Democrats know the only way we can win in 2008 is with a centrist Democrat, and that one person is Mark Warner," said Thomas J. Lehner, director of public policy for the Business Roundtable and once a top aide to former U.S. Sen. Charles Robb, D-Va. Read more:

The Washington Post has an article here:

"I need your help, your ideas, your energy, your resources," Warner told the crowd. " Together, we can shake things up. Together, we can find leaders who see a little farther down the road. This nation can, and must, do better. If we can do it in Virginia, we can do it in America."

Also another from the Hampton Roads Daily Press here.

Warner Yucks it up at the Gridiron Club

2005-12-05T15:21:00.000-08:00

Gov. Warner was at the Gridiron Club's winter dinner to deliver the laughs. Nice slam on the President and Sen. Allen: (Hat tip Politicalwire.com)

"One of the things I'm most proud of is my commitment to bipartisanship," said Warner, who has formed a national fundraising committee and visited such key presidential states as New Hampshire and Iowa.

"That's why, if I do run for president, I may ask Senator Allen to be my running mate. Think about it -- what's more presidential than this:

"I'm a red-state governor, who failed at a couple of businesses, and I liked to party too much in college, and I recently got in a well-publicized bike accident," Warner said.

"He's a guy named George who's done nothing more than live off his dad's legacy. Together we wouldn't just get elected president -- together, we already are the president."

Warner Bio Response to Mathew Gross

2005-12-02T15:20:00.000-08:00

Eric currently having trouble posting, but sent me his response to a blog from Mathew Gross.

Gross contends that great Southern hope Warner has already "crashed and burned" his shot in the Democratic primary based on his Iraq positioning. Read more:

Eric Davis responds:

Your comment that some have adopted Warner early (as I have) based on his biography is right and yet it misses an important point. I plead guilty to having taken a serious look at Warner because of his bio. And yet, I then STAYED with him because of his bio. THEN, I have (since) had the pleasure of meeting and hearing from him, and I'm hooked. Now mind you, I was a Dean Meetup Host in April of 2003, and on the surface there was only a few superficial similarities (governor, balanced budgets, Net savvy).

The thing is, Warner's story is a large part of why he's the right choice for America. In addition to his personal qualities and the quality of his ideas and direction (a bit on this below), his story is an important reason. It's the key to why.

This sounds corny, but such things often resonate more in Middle America than some on the left (I call us "people who read") are comfortable with. But it's true. Mark Warner is the kind of person a lot of parents hope their kid will grow up to be. The first in his family to graduate from college, he then went to Harvard Law. After a stint at the DNC, he took a few flyers on business. The first failed after six weeks, the second after six months.

The third was Nextel. Money beyond all reason, followed by more from capital investments.

What did he do? After contributing all he could he signed on and ran Doug Wilder's campaign, getting the first black Governor of Virginia elected. A bit after that, he took on fossilized conservative John Warner for Senate - and did NOT get crushed but made a very respectable show in a very Red state. He also self-funded a healthcare initiative and a rural broadband program. Then he ran and won for Governor. He took a $6 bil deficit and made it a $500 mil surplus - but getting both sides to agree to cutting everything but education before resorting to a tax increase that over 20 R's in the VA legislature voted for along with the D's. Along the way, he passed landmark legislation protecting the Chesapeake Bay and got VA to where Governing magazine ranked it the best managed state in the US.

First in college, then Harvard. Self-made zillionaire who turned to elect Doug Wilder and then into public service himself. A proven Governor who is WILDLY popular in VA.

And then...you have to hear him. His character comes through. Easygoing, has a good sense of humor. And big ideas. Large ones. Understands the potential of tech and education to tranform us - knows its the key to a stable future. Pro-choice - I heard him say it six times. Like Dean, he has a ruralist's policy on guns; but also like Dean is up front about it, doesn't Bayh/Biden/Kerry it.

Knows that the way out is not to focus on left or right but on future or past. Knows that Americans are ready for some good news, that we need to feel that there is hope for the future, that there is a way out of the Bush catastrophe. Knows how to make government work. Is a leader. Can't be bought. Gets both "bubba" and the blogosphere.

The right guy at the right time with the right credentials and the right character. Mark Warner is about renewing the promise that is America.

Warner's Remarks on Iraq at the Asia Society

2005-11-30T15:36:00.000-08:00

All the buzz is about Warner’s recent remarks on Iraq at Asia Society in New York. Yikes, where do I even wade into this?

The “funny” part is he didn’t actually say much on the Iraq. In New Hampshire, he recently had remarks that were very similar. I think he is now getting the first taste of just how clear words have to be to convey the proper meaning under the microscope of a Presidential campaign. Not only do they have to be clear, but also limiting, or people run with unintended inferences. There are two parts to his statement, now considered "of interest" in the blogosphere. The first is whether the US should set firm deadlines to get out. As quoted in the Washington Post:

The United States needs to set milestones for progress, not a firm withdrawal date, before it can leave Iraq, Virginia governor and prospective Democratic presidential candidate Mark Warner said on Monday.

"To set an arbitrary deadline or specific date is not appropriate," he said. "... It is incumbent on the president to set milestones for what he believes will be the conclusion." Warner said the debate should focus on how to finish the job; that Sunni Muslims and Iraqis in general should be involved in reconstruction; and that the United States must convince more allies to help.

Speaking to reporters later, he said it was not necessary to increase troop levels in Iraq. "It appears the country's headed in the opposite direction," Warner said. Read more:

Really, this isn’t exactly a controversial position as he falls into the mainstream opinion among policy makers in the Democratic Party.

Right now there are three major camps in the Democratic Party (yes each with nuances). There is a percentage on the anti-war left who knee jerk damn the consequences who want to pull out immediately from Iraq, simply because it is Mr. Bush’s war. If a civil war happens with genocide, or Iran sets up shop, just blame Bush. Then there is the Biden/Hillary club who truly believe pulling out could lead to bloody civil war killing hundred thousands of civilians, and make the situation worse for the US in Middle East. This group believes we need change our current strategy and to try to salvage something before withdraw. Then we have the Murtha faction of former hawks who believes the only way to make progress in Iraq is to pull-out to an over the horizon role and make the Iraq’s stand on their feet. Due to the type of insurgency, the military can only make the situation worse.

On the blogs, the usually reasoned Bull Moose lumps Warner in with Lieberman in a grand coalition of the adults.

Lieberman and Warner are charter members of the bi-partisan Coalition of Adults that realizes that an American defeat in Iraq would be both morally and strategically disastrous. And by refusing to abandon democrats, they are taking the progressive position!

Ouch, the Moose just laid a whooping steaming pile of manure in Warner's “defense.” Warner is adult, but comparing him to Lieberman... What is the Moose trying to do, clear the Democratic field of anyone who remotely might have a chance to beat his old boss McCain?

Moose, does this mean Murtha is in the Coalition of the Adolescents? Hell, I am torn myself. I don’t want American to be the cause of hundreds of thousands of deaths in a civil war, but I don’t believe democracy will ever work in Iraq. Murtha's plan looks better and better, as the only way out to avoid civil war.

Warner could have made huge political capital by becoming the first Presidential hopeful to endorse the Murtha plan. Truthfully, given his lack of foreign policy experience, it would have been a disingenuous purely political move. He is focused on his final months as VA governor and there is no way he has had the opportunity to meet with enough people to make well-informed decisions about Iraq. But silence on any topic isn’t ever granted to the “hot” candidate.

Now to the second and more controversial of Warner’s comments. Just a quick little one-liner that is probably the “right” thing to say, but politically removes a serious weapon in Warner’s arsenal.

"This Democrat doesn't think we need to re-fight how we got into (the Iraq war). I think we need to focus more on how to finish it," Warner said.

Ah, this sends my friend Dan Conley, a former speechwriter for Gov. Wilder D-VA, into fits on his blog. Conley’s argument is that essentially Warner is unilaterally disarming his best weapon in a crowded field of Senators.

On one level his Iraq speech was a failure because it demonstrated Warner to be a poor strategic player, unlikely to break through in a strong field. Perhaps the most potent advantage Warner has in 2008 is his distance from Washington and the 2002 Congressional Iraq War vote. The war vote is a club Warner can pound into Hillary Clinton, John Kerry and John Edwards at will -- if these leaders didn't have the sense to slow down the march to war then, why should we trust them now? You don't even have to be a war opponent to make this argument -- you simply need to argue that these Senators had a Constitutional duty to thoroughly examine all the intelligence to make sure it was solid and they failed. Warner has now unilaterally disarmed on Iraq intelligence by saying we don't need to re-fight how we got into this war. Who's advising him on this nonsense?

His campaign clearly hasn't figured out that the only way for Warner to be nominated is to knock out John Edwards first, then become the electable Hillary alternative. Staking out the middle now, with Hillary already there and Edwards deftly shifting course on Iraq and picking up progressives with his 21st Century war on poverty, is a recipe for finishing behind Edwards in Iowa and dropping out soon after. Read more:

If my memory serves me right, Warner was never opposed in the Democratic two primaries for Senator and Governor. He has only had to run to the center in a general election without having to mollify the base. Conley could be right that Warner is a poor strategic player, but I would limit this to poor primary strategic player as he has shown an enormous amount of savvy in general elections.

While I disagree with Conley that Iraq will still be major issue in 2008, you just can’t tell 3 years out. I think everything will turn domestic in 2008, but Iraq is still going to be a big part of the primary discussion even if not so with the general. I have to concur with Conley, don’t unilaterally disarm two years before the start of primary season. Be bold talking about big ideas/visions, and quiet on specifics related to policies of the day.

Lowitt Case

2005-11-30T07:20:00.000-08:00

To disclose where I stand on the issue of death penalty (with the exception of treason or terrorism), I would set a very high standard before someone could be given the ultimate irrevocable punishment. Especially given what happened in Illinois where Republican Gov. George Ryan commuted 150 death sentences. His reasoning over "Half of the nearly 300 capital cases in Illinois had been reversed for a new trial or re-sentencing. Now, how many of you people here today that are professionals can call your life a success if you're only 50 percent successful?"

I don't know if Virginia's justice department is inept as Illinois was previously.

To the case at hand, Gov. Warner was asked to commute the sentence to life in prison of Robin Lovitt. Mr. Lovitt was not able to use every option at his disposal in his post-trial defense due to destruction of evidence by a court employee. Lovitt would have been the 1,000th convict put to death since the Supreme Court reaffirms the punishment. Many speculated whether Warner would be politically motivated to deviate from his norm of not granting clemency.

On Tuesday, Warner did grant clemency to Lovitt. From the Governor's statement:

"I believe clemency should only be exercised in the most extraordinary circumstances. Among these are circumstances in which the normal and honored processes of our judicial system do not provide adequate relief - circumstances that, in fact, require executive intervention to reaffirm public confidence in our justice system.

"The Commonwealth is legally obligated to maintain physical evidence until a defendant has exhausted every legal post-trial remedy in the case. However, evidence in Mr. Lovitt's trial was destroyed by a court employee before that process could be completed. I believe the courts have correctly ruled that the law requiring the maintenance of such evidence does not provide relief for a defendant in Mr. Lovitt's circumstances. However, in this case, the actions of an agent of the Commonwealth, in a manner contrary to the express direction of the law, comes at the expense of a defendant facing society's most severe and final sanction. The Commonwealth must ensure that every time this ultimate sanction is carried out, it is done fairly. Read more.

The Washington Post has more:

"OUTGOING VIRGINIA Gov. Mark R. Warner (D) acted rightly and humanely yesterday in granting the clemency request of Robin M. Lovitt. Mr. Lovitt was scheduled today to become the 1,000th convict put to death in the modern era of capital punishment -- a dubious distinction that someone else will soon claim. Mr. Warner had never granted clemency before; there have been 11 executions during his four years in office. But the circumstances of Mr. Lovitt's case demanded action. The governor deserves credit for not letting his presidential ambitions keep him from responding appropriately to the facts." Read more:

To those who would suggest that somehow this makes him more palatable to the left wing of Democratic Party on the issue, I disagree. Warner was in a no-win situation.

Yes, I believe Gov. Warner did the right thing, not because it was an politically expedient option. More importantly, I think he did want he thought was best. Questions of life and death are no easy matter. Unlike Bush who mocked a death penalty inmate, from what I know of Warner he approached the issue with reverence and thoughtful consideration. While I am certainly not a one-issue voter, granting clemency is not an issue a President has to deal with anyway except in the cases of treason and terrorism.

To all those in the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party who loved Bill Clinton, he too supported the death penalty. Remember Clinton who was not going to be out "law and ordered" so much that he "even rushed back to Arkansas during the 1992 campaign to oversee the execution of a mentally-retarded inmate."

Even if I disagree with Warner on several issues, I don't see him as the type to grandstand on an issue he doesn't believe is right.

Breaking News on WW - Potential Warner Scandal

2005-11-28T19:07:00.000-08:00

Just days after the "Draft" scandal of Democratic Governor and potential 2008 Presidential candidate Bill Richardson, another scandal is engulfing another Democratic Governor and potential 2008 Presidential candidate. Democratic flavor of the month, Gov. Mark Warner is being accused by Republican operatives of faking a second place finish in the Lunenburg County Turkey Shoot in order to inflate his "hunting" savvy.

Professor Larry Sabato of UVA, a respected authority on Virginia politics, said he was stunned by the allegations. "This scandal has the potential to derail Warner's bid for the White House. Warner needs to get out there quickly and put the issue to rest."

The "official" story is as follows:

(In the Virginia campaign) "Warner passed the “gun test” with flying colors. On the campaign trail, Crumley says Warner had no problem convincing hunters that he respected their hobby. In Lunenburg County, in fact, Warner even took second place in a turkey shoot, Crumley recalls. (After he took office, he also appeared on a hunting show on ESPN wearing blaze orange, and shot geese.) Most important, Crumley says, Warner worked the gun vote so relentlessly in 2001 that, in the end, the NRA decided not to officially endorse either candidate — in effect a victory for Warner."

But did Warner really win the Turkey Shoot fairly? Republican operatives are pointing to conspiracy theorists and new evidence to suggest it was an elaborate hoax.

A new home video has emerged of Warner's visit to Lunenburg County. This video is backed up by eyewitness accounts that until now had been dismissed. Interviewed in the Lunenburg Press in 2001, Jimmy "Fatty" Smith had claimed hearing another gunshot from his left across the grass knoll on the fair grounds and roughly forty-five degrees from where Warner was standing. The town drunk, Forrest Lee Dennison, claimed also hearing a second shot and then seeing a Jeep Cherokee SUV speeding off. Even though FL Dennison had found a Wood Brothers cap at the scene, the editor of the Lunenburg Press had dismissed FL and Fatty's claims, because in his words, "either one of them boys would have lied for less than a six pack, even that fancy micro brewed sh-t."

This was until the new evidence emerged last week. Local volunteer firefighter Stanley Lapruder had video taped the 2001 turkey shoot, and was recently rummaging through his closet looking for tapes record over. Rudd, "I found the Turkey tape, just popped it in, and was looking at it. Damn if I didn't see a man with an umbrella open positioned so you couldn't see the grassy knoll. After the shot, he folded the umbrella and then I seen it! Somebody with a gun was scurrying off toward the parking lot. There was no reason for anyone to have an umbrella on a clear day like that. I think he was hiding the real shooter."

In a press conference at the Heritage Foundation on Monday, fellow Herbert Danford laid out the evidence including a Lapruder tape and testimony from experts. Danford said, "Based on the eye witnesses, follow-up interviews and new Lapruder tape, there was no doubt Warner confidant, rural political strategist and avid hunter, Dave "Mudcat" Saunders was the actual shooter. Due to this terrible deception, Warner should immediately resign as Governor of Virginia." One of the "experts" called by the Heritage Foundation, Grover Norquist said, the organizers purposely destroyed the paper bullseye in order to cover up the deceit.

Festival organizers declined to comment. However their lawyer issued a brief statement, "The Annual Turkey Shoot has never had a policy to keep the bullseyes after the judges make a decision." DNC Chairman Howard Dean issued the following statement on the affair, "We do not believe the charges levied at Gov. Warner. Grover Norquist has no qualifications in the forensic field. Watching every episode of CSI does not make him an expert. He should stick to helping the President run up huge deficits."

In independent research, Warnerwatch.com has discovered that several of the Republican operatives claiming foul were in charge of rounding up the rural vote in 2001. Since Democrat Warner won 51% of the rural vote, one Virginia Democrat off record suggested, "they just can't get over the ass whooping they took in 2001 and just earlier this month."

The Warner office has yet to respond to the charges. Mudcat Saunders was available for comment from his Roanoke home on the alleged scandal. On hearing the story, "G-dd-mn it. What the F-ck? Second, second... If I was shooting, h-ll he would have won. You dumb asses in the press better get your f-cking sh-t straight."

Updated post-e-mail check:

Geesh people, of course this is a joke... Is there no humor left in politics?

Daily Kos November Straw Poll

2005-11-21T19:59:00.000-08:00

Daily Kos is having some fun with an unscientific poll of community members for Democratic Presidential candidates in 2008.

Clark 26%
Feingold 19%
Warner 15%
Edwards 12%
Clinton 6%
No frickin' clue 6%
Richardson 5%
Kerry 2%
Biden 1%
Bayh 1%
Vilsac 0%

Note the last time the "poll" was taken in September, Warner was around 4%.

So Far, No Shortage of Warner News

2005-11-21T12:57:00.000-08:00

Still a lot of buzz about Warner giving me the opportunity to blog every day. Most of it coming out now is just resuscitations of Warner's bio with the same "Messianic" theme.

Here is another introductory article with very little new from New Jersey's Star Ledger. Of note is the newly "stock" quote of how Warner is good with small groups, but still needs work on the speaking front. I still don't think this works against Warner. In Iowa and New Hampshire, you become the front-runner by how good you are at retail politics. Even with the possible inclusion of two more caucuses before New Hampshire's primary, I am not sure the dynamic changes.

On a personal level, in small groups, Warner is effective. He looks a questioner in the eye. And his answers, while doubtless well-researched, seem conversational, not pulled from a pre-programmed list of stock replies. Loose-limbed and lanky, Warner seems comfortable with himself and his role as the big winner in this year's elections, and at ease with others.

But for all his success in Virginia -- a 74-percent approval rating, highest ever for an end-of-term governor in the Mason-Dixon Poll, and a Best Governed State accolade from Governing Magazine -- Warner needs to sharpen his skills if he's going to make a showing nationally, says Sabato. "He wasn't a good speaker as a candidate in 2001, but he's getting better."

Also another Washington Post article focusing on his New Hampshire trip.

Robert Parker Gives Warner a 97

2005-11-20T20:44:00.000-08:00

When living in Northern Virginia, I looked forward to every spring and summer to the Virginia wine festivals. Typically held in some expansive field in Loudoun County near horse country, picnic lunches were the norm. Nothing was better (except the mid-Atlantic beer festival) for pure fun with friends. Virginia has a rich wine-making tradition. Even ole Thomas Jefferson in his “Notes on the State of Virginia” compares Virginia wine to French, favorably of course.

So Washington Whispers now writes Warner owns a vineyard… Now I am Impressed! Who knew?

At his farm, Warner grows 15 acres of grapes for nearby Ingleside Vineyards. They use the grapes in Ingleside wines and bottle a private Rappahannock Bend label that Warner offers at charity auctions. "The wines are very good," cheers owner Douglas Flemer, who also manages Warner's vineyard. He says Warner's wine roots could help in 2008. "The fact that he can say he's a grape grower," says Flemer, "could help in places like California." But Warner's team urges that we not take the Jeffersonian winemaker turned president comparison too seriously. "The governor jokes," says aide Ellen Qualls, "that the wine is good for charity auctions, not for drinking."

Governor, how about a bottle next time you are in Chicago?

Also the Washington Post covers Warner’s travels in New Hampshire. Also there is an interesting interview with NH television.

Speech at Harvard

2005-11-18T14:36:00.000-08:00

An alumnus of the law school, Warner recently visited Harvard to speak to the College Democrats. His former campaign manager, Steve Jarding, also just happens to be a professor there.

Several blogs picked up the response; Forward Together, Progressive Progress, Harvard Democrats Blog and the school paper, The Crimson.

One poster on FT mentions Warner's supposed lack of speaking skills in order to dismiss them.

I know it is fashionable to bash Kerry and mock his Senatorial delivery, but I witnessed him speak to small groups in Iowa several dozen times. Most people never had the chance to see it, but Kerry was very, very good in the small group settings.

I was recently similarly impressed with Warner, as he comes across at the “gut level” as truly genuine with your best interests at heart. These are “golden” characteristics for a politician. He will do very well in an Iowa town hall meeting.

His only issue might be similar to Kerry’s in that "how do you transfer the small group dynamism to media forms?" This is still an open question...

Strategic Vision Wisconsin Poll

2005-11-18T14:11:00.000-08:00

Warner has started to inch up within pack for the 2008 Presidential contest. Strategic Vision's recent poll of Wisconsin has the Governor moving up. Considering he is with 1% of Kerry and Clark, and 3% of Edwards, plus beating Biden, Vilsak and Bayh... This is a very nice "Kaine" bounce.

Who is your choice for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2008? (Democrats only) Hillary Clinton 31% Al Gore 14% Russ Feingold 13% John Edwards 7% Wesley Clark 5% John Kerry 5% Mark Warner 4% Joseph Biden 3% Tom Vilsak 2% Evan Bayh 2% Ed Rendell 1% Bill Richardson 1% Barbara Boxer 1% Undecided 11%

Hat tip to W2008 on the Forward Together blog.

What About Worrying About Us A Little?

2005-11-18T08:44:00.000-08:00

2004 was National Security, national security, national security… Kerry seemed to be the obvious choice.

2006 and 08 will be a very different races. Pitifully Senators Kerry and Biden are still out touting their foreign policy experience. If they decide to jumpinto the Presidential campaign with that message, a rude awakening is coming as the American people have moved in a significantly different direction.

The winds are blowing… Our prestige in the world is at a low, our inability to impose democracy in Iraq, and our failure to care for our own in Katrina are swinging the pendulum back to our ever-present isolationist side. This is definitely a good political landscape for a capable proven governor focused on a domestic agenda.

A domestic agendas focus and anti-Washington anger are going to be the predominate themes over the next three years.

Hat tip to Politicalwire.com from the Pew Research Center’s polling:

As the Iraq war has shaken the global outlook of American influentials, it has led to a revival of isolationist sentiment among the general public. Fully 42% of Americans say the United States should "mind its own business internationally and let other countries get along the best they can on their own." This is on par with the percentage expressing that view during the mid-1970s, following the Vietnam War, and in the 1990s after the Cold War ended.

The public's overall support for global engagement – which increased in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks – has clearly receded. Just a quarter of the public favors the U.S. being the most active of leading nations, which represents a significant decline compared with October 2001 (33%). The percentage of Americans who agree that the "U.S. should mind its own business internationally" has risen from 30% in 2002 to 42% currently. Isolationist sentiment is growing particularly among Democrats and independents. More than half of Democrats (55%) now say the United States should mind its own business internationally up from 40% in 2002; among independents, 42% express that view now, compared with 27% three years ago.

As to public perceptions of the U.S. global image, two-thirds of Americans (66%) say that the U.S. is less respected than in the past. When asked about possible reasons for global discontent with the U.S., overwhelming percentages of Americans (71%) and opinion leaders (87%) cite the war in Iraq as a major factor.

Warner’s Opening?

2005-11-17T06:54:00.000-08:00

Politicalwire.com links to a Harris Interactive poll on national politics. While to no one’s surprise Bush’s approval rating continued to drop, Democrats also saw a dip in approval to 25% approval rating. Ouch! This kind of news isn’t good for the bunch of tired retread Democratic Senators looking to run in 2008.

The American people view Democrats and are passing judgment SOSDD (same old shxt different day). They know and dislike the Republicans, but why change one group for the other. They are tired of Democratic milk toast centrism and out of touch liberalism. Americans crave a straight shooter, who even if it is not easy challenges them to aspire again to greatness. BIG IDEAS, “can do” spirit, with an optimism for the future…

However, Democrats also saw "one of the biggest dips in approval" in this poll. "Only a quarter of Americans polled give Democrats a positive rating in the latest poll, compared with 31% in August, while Republicans' approval ratings fell to 27% from 32%."

Where's Ross Perot when we need him?

2005-11-16T12:00:00.000-08:00

David Walker, the head of the Government Accountability Office in conjunction with the Concord Coalition has been making some noise about the dangerous fiscal irresponsibility of the White House and Republican controlled congress. Even USA Today’s Tuesday front-page article was “Fiscal Hurricane on the Horizon.” On a self-billed Fiscal Wake-Up Tour, this group is traveling the country trying to capture the attention of concern citizens.

Liberals and conservatives, Democrats and Republicans, they are trying to be heard above the ka-ching of the cash register as it tallies the cost of government benefits and tax cuts, Iraq and Hurricane Katrina. To raise their profile in recent months, several have traveled together to places such as Richmond, Va., and Minneapolis…

Well, what does this have to do with Warner? Warner is self-made businessman who can speak at length on using bi-partisanship to resolve budget deficits, someone who has spoken strongly on the need to tell people the truth, and who has shown the political will to take action. Yes, the Ross Perot appeal (minus the quirkiness and paranoia) is very strong with Warner. Continuing with the article:

After three decades in the business, Rivlin is frustrated by lawmakers' inaction and blames balanced-budget advocates for not better articulating the problem. "There may be better ways to talk about it," she says. "I sometimes think, Where's Ross Perot when we need him?"

;-)

In many ways, 2008 is going to be closer to 1992. People are sick of worrying about the world. They are going to want a little piece of “Mayberry” and more worrying about us here in the good ole “US of A.” Hey, hopefully those stupid budget charts of Perot’s may be in vogue again…

Warnerblog.com Speculation by Dan Conley

2005-11-16T05:11:00.000-08:00

Dan Conley finds some interesting Warner entanglements on his blog.

When conducting a whois search for the owner of Warnerblog.com, I came across something odd. Not surprisingly, the URL is owned by the Forward Together PAC, Mark Warner's political action committee. But the administrative contact for the site is Sherrod Brown at friendsofcampaign@growohio.org.

Yes, that's the same Rep. Sherrod Brown running for the U.S. Senate in Ohio. His PAC is GrowOhio.org.

Any theories? Perhaps a political consulting firm hired by both candidates mixed up the registration information?

Warner's Blog is up!

2005-11-15T11:18:00.000-08:00

Lots of discussion going on the blog at Warner’s website. Go check it out. The following is my response to someone who disagreed with Eric’s challenge to the use of the term “sensible center.”

Here is my reply to Sensible Center

Here is what I don't understand about as charged a term as sensible center. I firmly believe Warner has the common sense pragmatism to heal our country, but unless he heals the Democratic Party first he isn't going to get that shot.

The Sensible Center theme plays up the conflict between the DLC and "Daily Kos" wings of the Democratic Party. And it isn't reconcilable with the Governor's statement above.

I am a progressive who believes other progressive will be pragmatic and if given the opportunity to support a centrist will do so, as long as it isn't thrown in their face. They are angry, but they want to win. Mark Warner cannot be president without peeling off a percentage of progressives in the Democratic primary.Centrists have been criticized (some wrongly, some not) for not standing for anything. This is why I believe a centrist like Mark Warner can appeal to enough progressives to heal the party. The rest of the post is here.

Rahm Emanuel takes up Warner like Themes

2005-11-14T10:32:00.000-08:00

DCCC Chairman Rahm Emanuel is taking up the "Big Idea" theme that has become so familiar in Warner's stump speech. Emanuel specific "five ideas" in this Time magazine article are very similar to the "imagination capturing" solutions Warner gave when he visited Chicago a couple of weeks ago. Wonder if they are reading from the same playbook?

Congressman Rahm Emanuel of Illinois had a nice moment on Meet the Press about a month ago. He said Democrats would run on their "ideas" in the 2006 congressional elections. "But what are the Democratic ideas?" moderator Tim Russert asked skeptically. Emanuel proceeded to rattle off five big ones, which seemed to shock Congressman Tom Reynolds of New York, his Republican debate opponent. "Those are the first solutions that have come out of (any Democrat's) mouth," Reynolds said.

And the five ideas? education, research & development, energy independence, healthcare, and talk on budget that sounds a lot like what Warner accomplished in Virginia. Specifics of the five ideas here.

Mark Warner on Face the Nation - NH Trip

2005-11-14T07:29:00.000-08:00

Mark Warner was on “Face the Nation” yesterday to discuss the mid-term elections. I didn’t get a chance to see the show and was wondering if someone could comment on his performance. The transcript looks good other than he mentioned “the sensible center” again. Please Governor banish this term from your vocabulary if you want to win the Democratic primary. More on this later.

See the transcript, here. Also see the recent DLC article called The Sensible Center authored by Warner.

Other News:

Warner was noted as one of the top five governors by Time magazine. Link for the Time article here.

Warner has begun traveling the country to test whether his brand of bipartisan pragmatism has any place in the polarized arena of national politics, saying, "Americans want somebody who is going to be straight with them, even if the truth may not be what they want to hear.”

The Times-Dispatch reports that Warner is making the rounds to New Hampshire. In the Granite state, Warner is meeting with Gov. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire who just happened to be Kerry’s former campaign chair.

Warner also will meet privately with another member of the Kennedy school faculty, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, a Democrat - perhaps picking up pointers on her state's politics.

The Start of Something Big

2005-11-11T12:40:00.000-08:00

As the momentum and support builds for a presidential run by Gov. Warner, the nation's major political writers are quickly realizing that they're going to have to get serious about a Warner candidacy. The Washington Post gives the Conventional Wisdom crowd its entree to the situation with this article

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/10/AR2005111002234.html

including a Who's In account of some of the major players who are already moving toward Gov. Warner or are already on board. It's kind of an Inside Baseball account because many of the people are relatively unknown outside the DC cocktail party circuit.

But for those who remember the adrenaline rush when, for example, Gov. Howard Dean's campaign suddenly got very real, when he went from an asterisk to someone who could no longer be ignored, this is all "very deja vu all over again."

Future historians may mark down Tuesday, November 8, 2005 as the de facto beginning of President Warner's charge to the White House.

OH - and make sure to join the Draft Mark Warner Yahoo Group, to keep up with national organizing efforts - or to become a leader in the volunteer movement for Gov. Warner in your state!

Eric Davis
ericd@draftmarkwarner.com

15 Point Swing

2005-11-10T14:03:00.000-08:00

Some friends of mine have downplayed Warner's role in helping Kaine. I wanted to point out this Philadelphia Inquirer article discussing Kaine's campaign pre and post-Warner.

On Tuesday night, he was arguably the biggest winner in Virginia's gubernatorial race, even though his name wasn't on the ballot. He is the departing governor - a Democrat with a 70 percent positive rating in a tax-averse, socially conservative "red" state - and he put his popularity on the line to elect a Democratic successor. His guy won big, beating President Bush's guy. Tim Kaine was down by 10 points when Warner stepped in and took a visible role; Kaine won by 5 points.

Another Positive Article About Warner

2005-11-10T07:20:00.000-08:00

More publicity for Warner… However, I am increasing become leery that this early publicity may not be good in the long-term.

I have concerns that his message is not currently ready for prime time and still being developed. I have concerns that he is going to be pigeon holed into a DLC mold, when he has much more potential. Lastly, I worry once he starts showing up in %'s for Presidential polling, he may get to comfortable with the traditional campaign and not be as willing to take risks. On the flip side, since he will not be Governor in a few months, hopefully he will be on the road extensively to meet people.

However, to those who would argue Warner's coattails did not play a primary reason for Kaine's victory, I will let Kaine's supporters speak for me in this Bloomberg article.

Warner, who got an 80 percent approval rating from Virginia voters in an October Washington Post poll, appeared in television ads and at rallies across the state and helped to raise money for Kaine, his 47-year-old deputy.

Behind the gubernatorial battle between Kaine and Republican Jerry Kilgore, Virginia's former attorney general, were Warner and U.S. Senator George Allen, a Republican and former governor who is also is among his party's potential 2008 presidential candidates. Both men put their political capital on the line. "Governor Warner really gambled everything,''

Brians said. "He was the point man on Tim Kaine's campaign.'' Kaine tied himself as much as possible to Warner, referring to the "Warner-Kaine'' administration, even though the two didn't run as a ticket in 2001.

Kaine supporters didn't waste time at his victory party in Richmond Tuesday night broadcasting what they think the election means.

"I'm looking forward to standing with you at your next victory party,'' Kaine told Warner as the crowd chanted "08, 08, 08.''

Virginia Beach? Bush mutters Et tu, Brute and shuffles off…

2005-11-09T13:25:00.000-08:00

I talked to my father-in-law in VA several times this week about voting for Kaine (D). His is an independent who really didn't care for the Democrat.

Guess what put him over the top to vote for Kaine? "as far as I was concerned when Bush made his appearance for Kilgore on Monday twas the fateful kiss. The city of Va. Bch. which is normally a Repub. stronghold went Democrat. (will wonders never cease)"

Warner Magic?

2005-11-09T12:18:00.000-08:00

The Hotline on Call points out that Warner is the only potential 08 candidate who campaigned on behalf of a winner in last night's off year election.

Obama on Tone, Truth and the Democratic Party

2005-11-09T09:28:00.000-08:00

Please, please, please, read Obama’s entire post. Newcomer and progressive Barak Obama has had his “Sister Soulja” moment and at the same time given the Democrats a road map for rebuilding a majority. I post it here, simply because every Warner supporter should be familiar with his argument. Warner cannot win the Democratic primary without some progressive support.

To the Daily Kos Crew:

There is one way, over the long haul, to guarantee the appointment of judges that are sensitive to issues of social justice, and that is to win the right to appoint them by recapturing the presidency and the Senate. And I don't believe we get there by vilifying good allies, with a lifetime record of battling for progressive causes, over one vote or position. I am convinced that, our mutual frustrations and strongly-held beliefs notwithstanding, the strategy driving much of Democratic advocacy, and the tone of much of our rhetoric, is an impediment to creating a workable progressive majority in this country.

According to the storyline that drives many advocacy groups and Democratic activists - a storyline often reflected in comments on this blog - we are up against a sharply partisan, radically conservative, take-no-prisoners Republican party. They have beaten us twice by energizing their base with red meat rhetoric and single-minded devotion and discipline to their agenda. In order to beat them, it is necessary for Democrats to get some backbone, give as good as they get, brook no compromise, drive out Democrats who are interested in "appeasing" the right wing, and enforce a more clearly progressive agenda. The country, finally knowing what we stand for and seeing a sharp contrast, will rally to our side and thereby usher in a new progressive era. I think this perspective misreads the American people. From traveling throughout Illinois and more recently around the country, I can tell you that Americans are suspicious of labels and suspicious of jargon. They don't think… more here

Building a Progressive Coalition for Warner in IL

2005-11-09T09:13:00.000-08:00

Very cool, some “run” on the Democratic blog of record in Illinois, Archpundit.com about Warner’s recent visit that I attended. Even a quote too... LOL

Entire post here:

Dennison, who is now the VP of the very progressive Democratic Party of Evanston argues Warner is not a choice between progressive and centrist. “Warner is a big ideas guy who would be very hard to define. He reminds me of Clinton. The choice isn’t about the left or right, it is whether Democrats can go to the American people with ideas big enough to capture their imagination.”

VA Governor's Race - Hillary and Company Notices

2005-11-09T09:02:00.000-08:00

Hat Tip to PoliticalWire.com

When Bush entered the fray to campaign on behalf of Kilgore in the Virginia governor’s race, the Washington punditry immediately announced the contest was now Bush versus Warner. Okay, I agree with long time Virginia watcher Dan Conley that yes this is overstating and simplifying the case.

Still yesterday’s win, given that Warner worked so hard to elect Kaine is a huge feather in Warner's cap. And yes, Hillary’s folks should be taking notice.

Here is a NY Daily News report from before the Virginia election.

ARLINGTON, Va. - Hillary Clinton boosters will be watching tomorrow's race for governor in Virginia as the outcome could boost the fortunes of a potential opponent in the 2008 Democratic presidential primaries, outgoing Virginia Gov. Mark Warner.

And while Clinton's camp has made it clear they are rooting for Kaine, his win will launch term-limited Warner onto the national political stage to join other Democrats vying for the "anti-Hillary" mantle in 2008. "If Kaine wins, it's because of Mark Warner's popularity, and if Kilgore loses, it's because of President Bush's unpopularity," contends University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato.

Why the Warner Watch?

2005-11-09T08:17:00.000-08:00

Admission #1: I am a progressive living in Illinois who until 5 years ago had always lived in a red state, and I like Mark Warner.

If Mark Warner can avoid stupidity of the Daily Kos/DLC feud, I believe he can appeal to a broad range of Democrats and unite our party. Equally I believe he has proven with his common sense non-ideological leadership in Virginia that he can unite a large coalition of the American people to not just win a general election, but heal the country. Am I giving him to much credit for a one-term relatively unknown governor or setting the expectations too high? Maybe, but the potential is there.

And that is what I plan to watch and post about, the nascent Warner campaign for President, as it searches for message, appeal and a chance to be part of the 2008 public debate. I am expecting it to be a fun ride.