Wednesday, December 07, 2005

Fun Horserace Calculations

The blogger over at HorseRace08 came up with a system to rate the performance of the Presidential hopefuls. The calculation is done by assigning a percentage to each of the "buzz" factors that can be quantified for a candidate, and then assigned a weighted percentage. You could quibble with the percentages assigned, but I think it is an interesting way to look at the races.

35%-Betting odds from Trade Sports
25%-PAC cash in the bank
20%-Number of blogs referencing the candidate according to Technorati
15%-PAC money raised
5%-thenextprez.blogspot.com weekly human poll

1. Hillary Rodham-Clinton (0.67)
2. Evan Bayh (0.46)
3. John Kerry (0.41)
4. Mark Warner (0.35)
5. John Edwards (0.22)
6. Tom Vilsack (0.19)
7. Bill Richardson (.018)
8. Joe Corzine (0.14)
9. Russ Feingold (0.12)
10. Wesley Clark (0.11)

Read the complete blog entry here.

The only major flaw I see is that the leadership PAC fundraising is weighted so high. Maybe someone knows for sure, but I think Senators can transfer their campaign war-chest into a Presidential fund, because both are federal. If I recall correctly, Kerry did this 2004. The reality is a Senator like Hillary/Biden/Kerry/Bayh/Feingold/Edwards would be better off raising money for their Senate campaign and just rolling it into their Presidential funds. This certainly is Hillary's strategy right now and seems to be better than putting money into a PAC with all the restrictions. Please someone correct me if I have it wrong about being able to transfer the funds.

Back to the Horserace, Evan Bayh came out relatively high because he had raised over $1.7 million year to date in his leadership PAC. After last night's $2.5 million fundraiser, I assume Warner would pass Bayh in the number two spot (Since Warner had not raised money for his PAC before the calculation, 25% of his previous score was zero).

Updated from Horserace08:

The $2.5m leadership PAC would propel Warner into a first place tie with Hillary at .61 percent. See more.

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